Forward Guidance
Vincent Deluard: The “Magic Money” That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear
Aug 29, 2023
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, discusses the hidden forms of government stimulus and why they will be less of a factor in 2024, leading to a slowing US economy. He reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish on US stocks and prefers international stocks. Other topics include the shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy dominance, the impact of higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and the complexity of inflation.
01:06:44
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Quick takeaways
- Vincent Deluard predicts a slowdown in the US economy in 2024 as the hidden forms of government stimulus that prevented recession in 2023 are expected to be less impactful.
- The concept of 'stealth stimulus' is highlighted, with factors such as social security cost-of-living adjustments and tax bracket adjustments providing significant stimulus to the US economy.
Deep dives
US Economic Growth and Recession Expectations
The podcast episode discusses the forecast of US economic growth and recession expectations. Vincent Deilwar, the guest speaker, accurately predicted no recession in the US in 2023 when many others believed otherwise. The current year's real GDP growth is projected to be robust at 5.8%, but Vincent is less optimistic about future growth expectations. He believes that the hidden trillion-dollar stimulus in 2023 will reverse in 2024, leading to a slowdown. While Vincent is not confident enough to predict a recession in 2024, he expects a slowdown and political uncertainties. Overall, he is less optimistic about US growth compared to six months ago.
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