Vincent Deluard: The “Magic Money” That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over

(13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt?

(18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally

(20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation

(26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary?

(41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets

(46:49) China

(49:52) Europe

(53:29) Japan

(55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials

(59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks

(01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.