Rational Security: The "Ukraine in the Membrane" Edition
Dec 5, 2024
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This discussion features Eric Ciaramella, a national security expert, Anastasiia Lapatina, a Ukraine affairs fellow, and Francis Farrell, a Kyiv reporter. They explore the implications of Trump's potential return on U.S. support for Ukraine amid the ongoing war of attrition. The trio delves into military aid negotiations, changing political dynamics, and the possible reset of U.S.-Russia relations. They also reflect on Ukraine's resilience and the strategic future that could unfold by 2028.
The conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a war of attrition, significantly affecting Ukrainian morale and defense capabilities amidst ongoing challenges.
Donald Trump's potential return to the White House could drastically alter U.S. foreign policy and its approach to the Ukraine conflict.
Ukrainian leadership faces growing public dissatisfaction and challenges in mobilization due to distrust in military commanders and economic strain from prolonged warfare.
Deep dives
Cultural Perspectives on Holiday Rom-Coms
Holiday-themed romantic comedies in the United States often center around young couples finding love during Christmas, presenting a uniquely American narrative of romance and festivities. This phenomenon is contrasted with varying international perspectives on Christmas, especially in countries like Ukraine, where historical events have shaped different cultural priorities and sentiments connected to the holiday. The discussion highlights the tension between traditional holiday values and the modern commercialized celebration that features attractive characters in romantic settings. Such contrasts raise questions about how globalization influences holiday narratives and cultural identities across different societies.
The Current State of the Ukraine Conflict
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has shifted into a war of attrition, with significant implications for Ukrainian morale and defense capabilities. Despite initial hopes for summer offensives, the situation has continued to favor the Russian military, which has recently seen relative success in taking territories amid heavy Ukrainian resistance. Insights reveal a grim landscape where Ukrainian forces struggle with manpower shortages and the harsh realities of sustained combat, while determining a strategic path forward remains fraught with challenges. The focus now lies on how Ukraine can stabilize its defenses while grappling with overarching difficulties due to the attritional nature of the conflict.
Challenges to Ukrainian Mobilization Efforts
Ukrainian mobilization has faced a number of obstacles, leading to growing frustrations among the public and military leadership regarding the war effort's sustainability. Issues such as distrust toward military commanders and allegations of corruption have hindered effective mobilization and left many feeling demoralized. Additionally, the economic strain of prolonged warfare has begun to wear on the populace, causing increasing war fatigue and calls for some form of resolution. As a result, the dynamics of public support and the populace's willingness to endure further sacrifices are becoming critical concerns for Ukraine’s leadership.
U.S. Support for Ukraine and Future Implications
As the Biden administration approaches its end, a sense of urgency has emerged to finalize arms shipments and support for Ukraine in anticipation of presidential transitions. Reports suggest that facilitating aid and ensuring Ukraine's capability to defend its territory remain priorities in the face of potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy under a new administration. The future of U.S. support for Ukraine could hinge on how effectively it stabilizes the lines of combat, navigating both military and political challenges. Moving forward, the importance of a coherent strategy that aligns U.S. military aid with Ukraine's evolving needs cannot be overstated.
Future of Ukraine's Security and NATO Integration
The discussion about Ukraine's future security focuses on how international partnerships and potential NATO membership will shape its defense landscape. Political leaders in Ukraine are emphasizing the necessity of firm security guarantees, particularly in light of ongoing threats from Russia. Despite Ukraine's desires for robust defense agreements to deter future aggression, uncertainty looms over whether substantial NATO integration will occur. The balance between immediate military support and long-term security strategies will play a crucial role in determining Ukraine's resilience and ability to navigate a precarious geopolitical environment.
This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:
“What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?
“New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where do they seem likely to lead?
“Flipping the Board.” Trump’s election—and whatever outcome he is able to bring about in Ukraine—has the potential to reset the strategic environment in Europe (and the U.S. strategic relationship with Russia) more generally. What might regional security—and security for Ukraine specifically—look like by 2028?
For object lessons, Nastya recommended Catherine Belton’s new book, “Putin’s People,” on the return and rise to power of the KGB. Eric gave a belated endorsement for the Oscar-winning South Korean film “Parasite,” and urged folks to watch it as a celebration of the democratic resilience South Korea demonstrated this week. Scott plugged the holiday variety show he was attending that evening and urged listeners to welcome the season with Aimee Mann’s “One More Drifter in the Snow.” And Francis recommended GeoGuessr, the geolocation game that has taken the KI newsroom by storm.
Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!