The Theory of Anything

Episode 129: Is Probability Real?

10 snips
Jan 13, 2026
Dive into a mind-bending discussion on the nature of probability, spurred by a Twitter exchange with David Deutsch. Explore whether probability truly exists or if it’s an illusion shaped by the multiverse. The hosts tackle the implications of deterministic views on randomness, address the practical applications of probability in forecasting and decision-making, and dissect different interpretations like frequentism and Bayesianism. They also examine the confusion surrounding language and probabilistic theories, highlighting the essential relationship between explanations and probability.
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INSIGHT

Context Shapes 'Randomness' Meaning

  • Words like 'random' and 'deterministic' carry context-dependent meanings tied to observers inside a universe.
  • Bruce Nielsen argues Deutsch's multiverse-based definition collapses useful distinctions and causes confusion.
INSIGHT

Keep Randomness And Pseudo-Randomness Separate

  • Treating quantum-originated unpredictability as 'pseudo-random' erases a physically distinct category we rely on.
  • Nielsen recommends preserving 'randomness' vs 'pseudo-randomness' and adding caveats about the multiverse.
ANECDOTE

Twitter Thread Summarizes Deutsch's Rejection

  • Bruce quotes a CritRat Twitter thread that summarizes Deutsch's rejection of probability across many domains.
  • The thread claims probability is often 'guesswork dressed up as reasoning' for predictions like AI doom or stock markets.
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