Bits + Bips: Does Macroeconomics Point to a Potential Crypto Supercycle? - Ep. 642
May 8, 2024
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On this podcast, they discuss how the macroeconomics could lead to a crypto supercycle, the impact of the Federal Reserve meeting on the markets, the approval of leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs over spot ETFs, the SEC investigation into Ethereum, the impact of bottoming emerging market currencies on Bitcoin, the profitability of Tether, and the potential for crypto to reach a $10 trillion market cap in the future.
Fed's influence on rate hikes and market adjustments
Significance of stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem
Deep dives
Understanding the Current Cycle and Economic Trends
The discussion delves into the current economic cycle, emphasizing the different perspectives on macroeconomics and the global economy. By likening the situation to the 90s with a focus on growth and employment data, the conversation touches on key indicators like unemployment rates and the Federal Reserve's approach to rate cuts and market adjustments.
Impacts of Recent Federal Reserve Meeting and Employment Reports
The podcast analyzes the outcomes of the recent Fed meeting, highlighting Chairman Jerome Powell's statements regarding inflation and interest rates. Insights into the Federal Open Market Committee's signaling of potential rate cuts based on employment data are discussed. The resulting market reactions, including Bitcoin price fluctuations and dollar dynamics, are scrutinized for implications on future monetary policies.
Macro Effects of Global Liquidity and Currency Movements
Examining the shifts in global liquidity and currency values, the dialogue explores the influence on various markets and economies. Specific examples of past interventions like the Shanghai Accord are referenced in context with recent developments in Asian currencies and the weakening dollar. Insights on market correlations, Fed policies, and potential trade impacts are discerned.
Cryptocurrency ETF Developments and Regulatory Implications
The discussion analyzes the progress and challenges surrounding cryptocurrency ETFs, focusing on leveraged futures ETF filings and their regulatory journey. Comparisons between spot and futures ETFs, along with insights into market structures and SEC actions, provide a comprehensive view of the evolving ETF landscape.
Trends in Stablecoin Adoption and Tether's Financial Success
The podcast reviews the rise of stablecoins and their utility in the crypto space, exemplified by Tether's financial reports and earnings. Considerations on stablecoin regulations, market acceptance, and Tether's profitability underscore the growing significance of stablecoins within the digital asset ecosystem.
In this first episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann explain why the macroeconomics could point to the markets actually being in a crypto supercycle.
They discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting and its impact on the markets, as well as the irony that leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs will likely be approved while spot Ethereum ETFs will likely not. James also reveals his pet theory on where the SEC is going with its investigation into ETH. They cover why the bottoming of emerging market currencies in Asia is good for Bitcoin, dismiss the recent Wells notice issued to Robinhood, and speculate that Tether may be the most profitable company per employee in the world.
Agreeing that the current market cycle is different, Seyffart and McCann suggest that there is still a long way to go, and assert that the market may be underweighting the possibility that crypto goes to a $10 trillion market cap in the next few years.
Show highlights:
The Fed's recent decisions and how they lower the chances of more rate hikes
The importance of global liquidity in the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto assets
Why a bottoming in the value of the yen, yuan and other emerging markets currencies is good for Bitcoin and crypto, according to Joe
The irony that leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs are likely to be approved but spot ETFs are not
James’s pet theory about how the SEC will rule on whether ETH is a security
Whether trading in Hong Kong's crypto ETFs shows how little interest there would be in an ETH ETF compared to spot BTC ETFs
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
Whether people are underweight on a “crazy bonkers rise” in crypto
Why Robinhood's Wells Notice is a "minor story," according to Alex
Whether Tether is the most profitable business per employee in the world
Why James believes that it's not a good idea for the US Congress to be against stablecoins
CZ's sentence and whether it's a "good ending for the story"
Hosts:
James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence