Bits + Bips: Does Macroeconomics Point to a Potential Crypto Supercycle? - Ep. 642
May 8, 2024
Hosts delve into macroeconomic signals that could indicate a looming crypto supercycle. They discuss the Federal Reserve's recent decisions and their influence on market dynamics. There's a fascinating irony in the expected approval of leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs, while spot ETFs face hurdles. They also explore how the stabilization of emerging market currencies may favor Bitcoin. Plus, there's speculation about Tether's profitability and insights into regulatory challenges facing Ethereum. In this unique landscape, the potential for crypto's market cap to reach $10 trillion is up for debate!
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insights INSIGHT
Different Cycle
The current market cycle feels different, potentially resembling a "supercycle".
Global macroeconomic conditions suggest an early-stage economy, similar to the 1990s.
insights INSIGHT
Global Liquidity and Bitcoin
Global liquidity is crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin.
A bottoming in Asian currencies and a weakening dollar are bullish signals for crypto.
insights INSIGHT
Ethereum ETF Outlook
Leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs are likely to be approved, while spot ETFs face low odds.
The SEC's decision on spot ETH ETFs is crucial and may hinge on classifying staked ETH as a security.
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In this first episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann explain why the macroeconomics could point to the markets actually being in a crypto supercycle.
They discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting and its impact on the markets, as well as the irony that leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs will likely be approved while spot Ethereum ETFs will likely not. James also reveals his pet theory on where the SEC is going with its investigation into ETH. They cover why the bottoming of emerging market currencies in Asia is good for Bitcoin, dismiss the recent Wells notice issued to Robinhood, and speculate that Tether may be the most profitable company per employee in the world.
Agreeing that the current market cycle is different, Seyffart and McCann suggest that there is still a long way to go, and assert that the market may be underweighting the possibility that crypto goes to a $10 trillion market cap in the next few years.
Show highlights:
The Fed's recent decisions and how they lower the chances of more rate hikes
The importance of global liquidity in the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto assets
Why a bottoming in the value of the yen, yuan and other emerging markets currencies is good for Bitcoin and crypto, according to Joe
The irony that leveraged Ethereum futures ETFs are likely to be approved but spot ETFs are not
James’s pet theory about how the SEC will rule on whether ETH is a security
Whether trading in Hong Kong's crypto ETFs shows how little interest there would be in an ETH ETF compared to spot BTC ETFs
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
Whether people are underweight on a “crazy bonkers rise” in crypto
Why Robinhood's Wells Notice is a "minor story," according to Alex
Whether Tether is the most profitable business per employee in the world
Why James believes that it's not a good idea for the US Congress to be against stablecoins
CZ's sentence and whether it's a "good ending for the story"
Hosts:
James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
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