Trends in Air Freight in a Post-Pandemic World

Over the next 12-24 months, parcel and courier companies are expected to benefit from several demand drivers. A cyclical recovery is expected to support improving B2B shipments while the COVID-19 virus has accelerated the adoption of e-commerce, supporting secular growth in B2C volumes. The pandemic has also grounded the global passenger aircraft fleet, which is expected to return into service at a slower rate than the recovery in freight demand; this could result in a multi-year positive supply/demand balance in air freight. We see durable competitive advantages for Canadian air cargo carrier Cargojet, which focuses on the more profitable “middle mile” service rather than the lower-margin “last mile.” The company’s dominant market share is also protected by cabotage laws that prevent big couriers such as Amazon, UPS, and FedEx from taking the middle mile in house.

BMO clients can view our Cargojet initiation report, “Initiating at Outperform: Moving Up in the New World”, by visiting: https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/research/1200cd1d-e74c-4fe8-be31-c9f54084eb60/

Our last mile logistics report, “Delivery Dilemma: How E-Commerce is Disrupting Last Mile Logistics” can be accessed by visiting: https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/research/d42a28f4-66c1-48fc-a1f2-4fc55ca335a7/

To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/