Hedgeye Podcasts The Best of Hedgeye: The Outlook → McCullough & Neil Howe on the Fourth Turning
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May 15, 2025 
Neil Howe, a renowned demographer and bestselling author, joins Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to dissect our current position in the Fourth Turning. They examine the economic landscape, discussing disinflation, rising interest rates, and the decline of the traditional investment portfolio. Howe highlights the unique challenges millennials face amid wealth disparities and the growing distrust in democracy. Delving into historical cycles, the conversation reveals how crises often catalyze societal transformations, urging listeners to reflect on the implications of generational shifts.
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Global Economy Slowing Down
- The global economy is slowing down with the U.S. trailing others in joining the slowdown.
- Rising interest rates and limited fiscal stimulus restrict economic relief and growth prospects.
1930s-Like Warning Signs Emerge
- Combination of long-term pessimism, geopolitical tensions, and exhausted domestic demand recalls the 1930s scenario.
- This mix signals potential for deep economic and social challenges ahead.
Distrust Fuels Tribalism
- Distrust in institutions drives people to tribal loyalties and individual leaders.
- This fracturing fosters division, conspiracy acceptance, and polarizes political identities.
