Hidden Forces Russia-Ukraine War & Risks of NATO-Russia Escalation | Dmitri Alperovitch
Mar 7, 2022
Dmitri Alperovitch, former CTO of CrowdStrike and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, delves into pressing issues surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. He analyzes why many failed to foresee the conflict's onset and discusses Putin's complex motivations, revealing aspects of his leadership struggles. Alperovitch highlights risks of NATO escalation and the potential consequences for U.S.-Sino relations over Taiwan. The conversation also touches on the implications of cyber warfare, emphasizing the growing threat of Russian cyberattacks in response to Western sanctions.
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Invasion Prediction
- Many assumed Russia couldn't successfully invade Ukraine, deeming it foolish.
- Alperovitch correctly predicted the invasion by analyzing military signals, like troop movements, indicating Putin's intent.
Military Signals
- Alperovitch, Michael Kofman, and Rob Lee all observed military signals like troop movements on TikTok.
- These movements, similar to the 2003 Iraq invasion, made invasion likely due to the political cost of retreat.
Putin's Rationality
- Putin operates with 20th-century great power logic, seeking spheres of influence.
- Many wrongly assumed diplomacy would prevail, ignoring military power's historical dominance.