The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan
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Sep 4, 2025 Mark Cancian, a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, dives into the strategic implications of a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan. He explains why China might favor a blockade over an invasion and the associated risks of escalation. Cancian explores Taiwan's military vulnerabilities and the crucial role of U.S. and Japan's support. He emphasizes the importance of defense preparedness and discusses how the blockade could disrupt global trade, especially in semiconductor manufacturing.
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Blockade Is A Distinct And Plausible Mode
- A blockade sits between gray-zone harassment and full invasion on a spectrum of coercion.
- China practices surrounding Taiwan and missile fires that look like blockade preparation, making blockade plausible.
Five Central Findings From The Wargame
- Five core takeaways: bad things can happen, Taiwan needs the U.S., no Ukraine analogue, intervention can succeed, preparations help.
- Preparations both reduce risk and increase deterrence by signaling readiness.
Blockade Is Costly And Escalatory, Not Clean
- Blockade is often seen as low-cost and reversible, but the wargames show high costs and escalation risk.
- A blockade also alerts others and gives time to prepare, making it a poor prelude to surprise invasion.