Guardian Essential Report: No vote in the overtaking lane
Sep 20, 2023
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Katharine Murphy and Peter Lewis discuss the recent poll showing no voters overtaking yes voters in the voice to parliament campaign. They also talk about voter engagement, dynamics between yes and no campaigns in a referendum, and the history of industrial relations deregulation in Australia.
The 'no' vote for the voice referendum in Australia is increasing, while the 'yes' vote is not showing significant improvement, indicating the need for a strong impact by the 'yes' campaign in the remaining four weeks.
There is a generational divide in perspectives on the voice referendum, with younger respondents reporting more disagreements, suggesting a potential barrier to consensus among different age groups.
Deep dives
Public Opinion on Voice Referendum
According to the Guardian Essential poll, the numbers indicate a hardening and growing 'no' vote and a lack of significant improvement in the 'yes' vote for the voice referendum in Australia. The poll results show that the 'no' vote has risen to 51%, while the 'yes' vote has dropped to 41%. The trend over the past few months has been an increase in the 'no' vote and a decrease in both the strong 'yes' and soft 'yes' votes. With four weeks remaining until the referendum, the numbers suggest that the 'yes' campaign needs to make a significant impact to shift the balance.
Public Engagement and Discussions on Referendum
The Guardian Essential poll includes data on public engagement and discussions regarding the voice referendum. The majority of respondents (61%) reported having discussions with others about the referendum, indicating an active level of awareness and interest. However, only 37% stated that they had disagreements with others about the referendum, suggesting that there may be a tendency for people to operate within their own bubbles and engage in self-referencing conversations. Notably, among 'no' voters, the differential between discussions and disagreements was higher, indicating that they were engaging in conversations about the referendum without encountering much disagreement. On the other hand, younger respondents reported more disagreements, suggesting a generational divide in perspectives on the referendum.
Popular Support for Industrial Relations Reforms
The Guardian Essential poll also examined public attitudes towards the government's industrial relations (IR) reforms in Australia. The results show that there is significant support across party lines for various propositions put forward by Labor, including closing labor hire loopholes to protect full-time workers (66% support), making wage theft a criminal offense (79% support), and ensuring digital platform workers have minimum rights and entitlements (54% support). These reforms appear to be popular among both Labor and Liberal voters, indicating a general consensus for protecting workers' rights and addressing issues like underpayment. However, awareness of these reforms remains low, and the presence of employer advertising against the reforms may shape public opinion in the coming weeks.
Guardian Australia’s political editor Katharine Murphy is joined by Essential Media’s Peter Lewis to discuss no voters narrowly overtaking yes voters in polling on the voice to parliament campaign, as well as opinions on the government’s industrial relations reform bill
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