Join Senior Economist Americas, Brian Rose, and Senior US Equity Strategist, Nadia Lovell, as they discuss the June CPI data impact on monetary policy and markets. Topics include Fed's interpretation, expectations for rate cuts, market response, sector positioning recommendations, and insights on portfolio positioning.
June CPI data shows minimal inflationary pressure due to factors like healed supply chains and reduced consumer spending.
Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in response to weakening data, with potential for more aggressive cuts in the future.
Deep dives
June CPI Print Reflects Low Inflationary Pressure
The June CPI print revealed a lower-than-expected inflation rate, with the headline CPI dropping month-over-month. Owner's equivalent rent, which had been stable, also showed a slowdown, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels of increase. Factors such as healed supply chains and reduced consumer spending are contributing to decreased inflationary pressures. Furthermore, prices of items like used cars, which surged during the pandemic, are now declining. Overall, the data suggests minimal inflationary pressure in the current economic environment.
Fed Likely to Cut Rates Based on Inflation and Labor Market Signals
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates following the recent inflation and labor market data signals. The Fed's focus on services other than shelter has led to anticipation of rate cuts in response to weakening data. With negative inflation prints in crucial areas and softening labor market indicators, the Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy. The expectation is for a rate cut at the September meeting, and potential more aggressive cuts in the future if needed.
Market Response to CPI Release and Equity Recommendations
Following the CPI release, the market saw a reversion trade with a shift towards cyclicals and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Housing stocks rallied on the prospect of earlier rate cuts benefiting the housing market. Positioning recommendations from CIO indicate a preference for tech and industrial sectors, while suggesting caution with real estate and consumer discretionary sectors. The market's performance highlights the importance of earnings growth amid rate cut expectations and ongoing economic conditions.
Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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