"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith on Taiwan's Future, Nuclear Proliferation, and Trump 2.0 [ChinaTalk]

Jan 22, 2025

Lily Ottinger, managing editor and Taipei correspondent for ChinaTalk, chats with Noah Smith about urgent geopolitical matters. They delve into how Trump's potential second term could shift Asian dynamics, especially with tech sectors influencing policy. The conversation touches on nuclear arms, particularly Japan and South Korea's security needs, and Taiwan’s historical nuclear ambitions. They also analyze China's economic stagnation and the impact of debt deflation, offering insights into the island's defense strategies and future economic prospects.

01:11:56

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Episode guests

Lily Ottinger

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Quick takeaways

Noah Smith discusses the significant influence of a potential Trump administration on Asia's geopolitical landscape, focusing on economic and diplomatic implications.

The podcast highlights the historical context of nuclear weapons as effective deterrents, emphasizing their role in maintaining state sovereignty and security.

China's current economic struggles are likened to Japan's 1990s debt deflation, illustrating the risks of declining prices and increased debt burdens.

Deep dives

Americans' Love for Chicken

The podcast discusses the immense popularity of chicken among Americans, highlighting it as a key dietary staple in various forms such as wings, nuggets, and eggs. It explores the socioeconomic implications of this preference and how deeply ingrained chicken consumption is in American culture. The chicken industry plays a pivotal role in the economy, representing one of the largest supply chains in the U.S. The episode seeks to unravel the reasons behind this obsession, through examining historical, cultural, and economic contexts.

Intro

2min

Political Influence and Geopolitical Dynamics

20min

Nuclear Proliferation Urgency in East Asia

3min

Taiwan's Nuclear History and Future Strategies

16min

Economic Stagnation and Deflationary Pressures in China

2min

China's Demographic Dilemma and Economic Deflation

7min

Property Markets and Healthcare: A Comparative Analysis

16min

Embracing Mistakes in Writing

4min

Bubble Tea, Taiwan's Laid-Back Culture, and Underrated Heroines

2min

While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts.

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk

Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/448WaJhgJGJKnQ3HCE2EBa

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaTalkMedia

Highlights from the Episode:

Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing.
Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them.
China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt.
Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery.
Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach.
Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders.

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/

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"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith on Taiwan's Future, Nuclear Proliferation, and Trump 2.0 [ChinaTalk]

Episode guests