The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 357. Shutdown? Maybe in DC… CMBS Issuance Surges, Bank Consolidation, Office Recapitalization
Oct 10, 2025
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown raises questions about economic data release delays and potential impacts on consumer spending. Recent Fed meeting minutes show a split among policymakers on future rate changes. Exciting projections suggest 2025 might see record-high CMBS issuance since 2007. The Fifth Third acquisition of Comerica could shake up the banking landscape. Additionally, major developments like RXR's $1.45 billion office-to-residential conversion near Penn Station reflect evolving trends in commercial real estate.
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Shutdown Makes Economic Data Unreliable
- A multi-week government shutdown turns economic data releases into unreliable snapshots.
- The longer the shutdown persists the more future economic readings become noisy and misleading.
Use Alternative Data During The Shutdown
- Monitor alternative data sources while official releases pause to reduce blind spots.
- Expect greater dispersion in market views and price around uncertainty, not fundamentals.
Fed Committee Is Increasingly Divided
- The Fed minutes show a divided FOMC about further rate cuts this year.
- That split increases policy uncertainty and raises the chance of mixed market signaling in coming meetings.