Macro Voices MacroVoices #497 Dr. Anas Alhajji: The Impact of Trump Polices on Russia, China, India & OPEX+
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Sep 11, 2025 Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, shares his expertise on geopolitical energy dynamics. He dives into the impact of Trump's tariffs on India's Russian oil imports, revealing the intricate politics at play. The discussion highlights OPEC's strategic maneuvers in a volatile market, while also examining the revival of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, reshaping energy security. Alhajji further analyzes electric vehicle trends in China and their subtle influence on oil demand, providing valuable insights for investors.
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OPEC+ Is Unwinding Cuts Gradually
- OPEC+ unwound voluntary cuts earlier than originally planned by moving the 1.65mbd return from 2027 to October 2025.
- Ministers will proceed month-by-month and can reapply cuts, pause, or expedite further changes based on inventories and demand.
OPEC+ Acts On Inventories, Not Daily Prices
- OPEC+ decisions cannot be framed as responses to day-to-day price moves because ministers are legally restricted from discussing prices.
- The real triggers for unwinding are falling global inventories and stronger demand growth, not short-term price swings.
Unwinding Didn't Flood The Market As Expected
- Market bears misread the April unwinding because they ignored local demand spikes and existing 'cheating' production already in market channels.
- Seasonal summer demand and domestic consumption (e.g., Hajj) absorbed much of the apparent supply increase.