Chicago Booth Review Podcast
This 100-year-old pattern explains Trump’s victory
Nov 20, 2024
Lubos Pastor, a Chicago Booth professor focused on the nexus of economics and voting, discusses the surprising patterns behind Trump’s election victory. He argues that voters understood the economy was growing, which actually propelled them to seek change. The conversation reveals a century-old trend: strong economies tend to favor Republican candidates while weak ones favor Democrats. Pastor also highlights how risk attitudes shape voter behavior and contrasts stock market performance under different presidencies, emphasizing its historical complexities.
27:12
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Quick takeaways
- Voters recognize strong economic conditions but still seek political change, revealing a nuanced understanding of their financial situations and risk preferences.
- A historical pattern indicates that a strong economy leads to increased support for Republican candidates, while economic struggles favor Democrats, driven by voter risk tolerance.
Deep dives
Voter Perception of the Economy
Voters demonstrate a strong ability to perceive the state of the economy, often voting according to their understanding of their individual circumstances rather than solely on external economic indicators. In the case of Donald Trump's election, many voters acknowledged that the economy was performing well, yet still opted for a change in leadership. Research indicates that during strong economic conditions, voters become more risk-tolerant, leading them to favor Republicans who advocate for lower taxes and less redistribution. This reflects a deeper understanding among voters, countering media narratives that suggest confusion regarding economic conditions.
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