Economics and Electoral Dynamics

Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election took many pundits by surprise. Voters consistently said the economy was their top issue, but even though the US economy is currently the world’s top performer, they nevertheless voted for a change in government. That led many observers to claim that Trump’s supporters had a warped view of the economy, concentrating more on inflation than on growth. Chicago Booth’s Lubos Pastor disagrees. His research suggests that voters knew the economy was growing, and that was, in fact, the very reason why they wanted a change of government. Pastor’s model is relatively simple: when the economy is strong economy, more voters opt for the Republican candidate in elections, while a weak economy favors Democrats. This pattern has held since 1927, regardless of the candidates or the incumbents. The reason has to do with how the economy shapes people’s attitudes to risk, which is also explains another phenomenon: the stock market performs much better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans.