Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Tuesday Twist
Dec 16, 2025
Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent employment report revealing a stagnating labor market. The discussion highlights the dual-month payroll data due to a government shutdown and its impacts. They dissect rising unemployment, potential recession probabilities, and wage growth concerns amidst productivity claims. The panel also debates how AI may reshape entry-level jobs, and the implications of weak retail sales on consumer spending. It's a gripping look at economic indicators and their far-reaching effects.
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Payrolls Stalled Since April
- Payroll data for October and November show almost no net job growth, with November adding only 64,000 jobs concentrated in healthcare.
- Dante and Mark conclude the private sector is essentially flat since April, signaling a stalling labor market.
Household Survey Has Larger Asterisk
- Household survey November standard errors were larger due to missing October data and methodological tweaks after the shutdown.
- Dante says payroll estimates may be more accurate thanks to extended response windows, but household readings are noisier.
Revisions Likely Lower Job Growth
- Benchmark revisions discussed by Fed staff could shave reported monthly job growth materially, potentially turning near-zero growth into declines.
- Dante and Mark expect directional downward revisions, though magnitude remains uncertain.