More or Less: Behind the Stats Nate Silver: Do risk-takers run the world?
Sep 14, 2024
Join Tim Harford as he chats with Nate Silver about the art of calculated risk. Discover how high-stakes players in finance and tech thrive on data-driven decisions. Silver argues that winning in today’s economy often hinges on bold bets. They explore wealth creation through risk, revealing the fine line between skill and luck. The conversation also dives into the intriguing world of political forecasting, full of bets and predictions about future elections. Get insights on why risk-takers may hold the keys to success!
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Everyday Risk Calculation
- Nate Silver discusses risk calculation using the example of choosing between walking, taxi, or tube in London.
- He highlights the need to consider not just average time but also downside risk, like potential delays.
River Dwellers
- People in "the river" (Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas) take calculated risks for high stakes.
- They are often eccentric and competitive, exemplified by figures like Elon Musk.
Rise of Risk-Takers
- Probabilistic thinking and risk-taking are becoming dominant due to increased data availability and the nature of capitalism.
- Nate Silver argues that competitive risk-takers tend to win in competitive environments.
