#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

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Oct 23, 2023

Ian Morris, a historian and classicist at Stanford University, dives into the fascinating interplay between historical trends and future possibilities. He argues that while innovation may seem to slow, we are on the brink of an evolutionary leap in technology. The conversation touches on why we shouldn't view technology strictly through an evolutionary lens, the potential resurgence of violence with advanced AI, and the complexities of human development that challenge our perceptions of progress. Morris also discusses the potential futures humanity faces, from intelligence explosions to existential threats.

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ANECDOTE

Sungir Burials

Ian Morris describes the Sungir burials, 32,000 years old, with elaborate grave goods.
This challenges evolutionary theory, as hunter-gatherers shouldn't have such social complexity.

INSIGHT

Future Development

Projecting past trends suggests a future with drastically higher development than today.
This implies a transformation of what it means to be human, similar to shifts during the agricultural and industrial revolutions.

INSIGHT

GDP Increase and Societal Change

A 30-fold increase in GDP requires profound societal changes, not just scaling up current resources.
This is analogous to the transformation from hunter-gatherer to farming societies.

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Why the West Rules - For Now

Ian Morris

In this book, Ian Morris explores 50,000 years of human history to understand why the West has come to dominate the world. He argues that it is not differences in race, culture, or individual achievements that explain Western dominance, but rather the effects of geography on the everyday efforts of ordinary people. Morris uses a four-factor analytical tool—energy capture, urbanization, information technology, and war-making capacity—to measure social development in both the East and West. He concludes that geography explains regional differences and predicts significant changes in global power dynamics in the coming centuries due to ongoing interactions between geography and human ingenuity.

The Age of Spiritual Machines

When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

Ray Kurzweil

In 'The Age of Spiritual Machines,' Ray Kurzweil presents a prophetic blueprint for the future where the capabilities of computers and humans become increasingly intertwined. The book explores the exponential growth of technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, and predicts a future where computers will exceed human intelligence. Kurzweil discusses the blurring of lines between human and machine, the emergence of new forms of intelligence, and the potential for humans to migrate their consciousness into machines. The book is a thought-provoking analysis of human and artificial intelligence and their evolving relationship in the 21st century.

Against the Grain

A Deep History of the Earliest States

James C. Scott

In 'Against the Grain', James C. Scott argues that the early agrarian states were not the result of a voluntary transition from hunter-gatherer lifestyles, but rather were formed through coercion and violence. He challenges the conventional narrative that agriculture led to settled communities, civilization, and improved living standards. Instead, Scott posits that these early states were often hierarchical, plagued by malnutrition and disease, and reliant on slavery. The book explores the domestication of fire, plants, and animals, and how these processes led to the control of populations and the emergence of states. It also discusses the tensions between states and non-state peoples, highlighting the adaptability and resilience of nomadic and hunter-gatherer communities.

The Coal Question

An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines

William Stanley Jevons

In this book, Jevons examines the central role of coal in Britain's economy and society, highlighting the finite nature of coal reserves and the potential consequences of their depletion. He discusses issues such as limits to growth, resource peaking, population growth, and the Jevons paradox, which states that improvements in energy efficiency lead to increased energy consumption. The book is a seminal work on resource depletion theory and its impact on economic and social prosperity.

Seeing Like a State

How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed

James C. Scott

In this book, James C. Scott examines the failures of centrally managed social plans and the destructive consequences of high-modernist ideologies. Scott argues that states often impose simplistic visions on complex societies, ignoring local, practical knowledge and leading to disastrous outcomes. He identifies four conditions common to all planning disasters: administrative ordering of nature and society, high-modernist ideology, authoritarian state power, and a prostrate civil society. The book critiques various utopian projects, including collective farms, compulsory villagization, and urban planning, and advocates for a more nuanced approach that respects local diversity and practical knowledge.

I, Robot

Isaac Asimov

This book is a fixup collection of short stories that tell the history of robotics from its inception to a future where robots are integral to society. The stories are framed by Dr. Susan Calvin, a robopsychologist, recounting her experiences with various robots and the complexities that arise from their interactions with humans. The collection introduces Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics and delves into themes of morality, psychology, and the social implications of creating intelligent machines. The stories feature recurring characters such as Dr. Calvin, Powell, and Donovan, and explore how robots interpret and comply with the Three Laws, often leading to unexpected and thought-provoking outcomes.

The Handmaid's Tale

Margaret Atwood

The novel is set in a near-future New England in the Republic of Gilead, a patriarchal, totalitarian state that has overthrown the United States government. Offred, the narrator, is one of the 'Handmaids', women who are forcibly assigned to produce children for the ruling class, known as 'Commanders'. The story explores themes of powerless women, loss of female agency and individuality, and the suppression of women's reproductive rights. Offred's life is marked by her restrictive routine, her memories of her past life, and her interactions with the Commander, his wife Serena Joy, and other Handmaids, including her friend Ofglen who is part of an underground resistance movement. The novel is a scathing satire, an ominous warning, and a tour de force of narrative suspense[3][4][5].

The leopard

Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

The Leopard, originally titled 'Il Gattopardo', is a novel by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa that explores the transformation of Sicilian society during the Italian unification in the 19th century. The story centers around Don Fabrizio, the Prince of Salina, who represents the old feudal order and witnesses the transition of power from the aristocracy to the new bourgeois class. The novel is set against the backdrop of Giuseppe Garibaldi's invasion of Sicily and the subsequent unification of Italy. It is known for its vivid descriptions of Sicilian life, its complex characters, and its exploration of themes such as mortality, change, and the decline of the aristocracy[2][3][5].

The Dawn of Everything

A New History of Humanity

David Wengrow

David Graeber

This book offers a dramatically new understanding of human history, challenging fundamental assumptions about social evolution, the development of agriculture, cities, the state, democracy, and inequality. Graeber and Wengrow argue that traditional theories of human history, such as those posited by Hobbes and Rousseau, are not supported by anthropological or archaeological evidence. Instead, they show that humans have lived in large, complex, but decentralized societies for millennia, often without ruling elites or hierarchical systems. The authors draw on extensive research in archaeology and anthropology to reveal a history that is more varied and hopeful than previously assumed, emphasizing human experimentation with different social arrangements and the potential for new forms of freedom and societal organization.

LEVIATHAN

Thomas Hobbes

Published in 1651, 'Leviathan' by Thomas Hobbes is a comprehensive treatise on political philosophy. The book is divided into four main parts: 'Of Man,' 'Of Commonwealth,' 'Of a Christian Commonwealth,' and 'Of the Kingdom of Darkness.' Hobbes argues that the natural state of humans is one of conflict and anarchy, and that the best way to achieve peace and security is through the establishment of a commonwealth governed by an absolute sovereign. This sovereign, which Hobbes terms the 'Leviathan,' has supreme authority over all aspects of governance, including law, religion, and public offices. Hobbes' work is a foundational text in social contract theory and continues to influence political thought to this day.

"If we carry on looking at these industrialised economies, not thinking about what it is they're actually doing and what the potential of this is, you can make an argument that, yes, rates of growth are slowing, the rate of innovation is slowing. But it isn't.

What we're doing is creating wildly new technologies: basically producing what is nothing less than an evolutionary change in what it means to be a human being. But this has not yet spilled over into the kind of growth that we have accustomed ourselves to in the fossil-fuel industrial era. That is about to hit us in a big way." — Ian Morris

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

They cover:

Some crazy anomalies in the historical record of civilisational progress
Whether we should think about technology from an evolutionary perspective
Whether we ought to expect war to make a resurgence or continue dying out
Why we can't end up living like The Jetsons
Whether stagnation or cyclical recurring futures seem very plausible
What it means that the rate of increase in the economy has been increasing
Whether violence is likely between humans and powerful AI systems
The most likely reasons for Rob and Ian to be really wrong about all of this
How professional historians react to this sort of talk
The future of Ian’s work
Plenty more

Chapters:

Cold open (00:00:00)
Rob’s intro (00:01:27)
Why we should expect the future to be wild (00:04:08)
How historians have reacted to the idea of radically different futures (00:21:20)
Why we won’t end up in The Jetsons (00:26:20)
The rise of machine intelligence (00:31:28)
AI from an evolutionary point of view (00:46:32)
Is violence likely between humans and powerful AI systems? (00:59:53)
Most troubling objections to this approach in Ian’s view (01:28:20)
Confronting anomalies in the historical record (01:33:10)
The cyclical view of history (01:56:11)
Is stagnation plausible? (02:01:38)
The limit on how long this growth trend can continue (02:20:57)
The future of Ian’s work (02:37:17)

Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Milo McGuire
Transcriptions: Katy Moore