#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
Oct 23, 2023
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Ian Morris, a historian and classicist at Stanford University, dives into the fascinating interplay between historical trends and future possibilities. He argues that while innovation may seem to slow, we are on the brink of an evolutionary leap in technology. The conversation touches on why we shouldn't view technology strictly through an evolutionary lens, the potential resurgence of violence with advanced AI, and the complexities of human development that challenge our perceptions of progress. Morris also discusses the potential futures humanity faces, from intelligence explosions to existential threats.
The rapid advancement of AI models challenges traditional education and calls for new teaching approaches.
Machine-based intelligence raises questions about its status as a new species and the fusion with human intelligence.
Machines possess technological advantages that surpass human capabilities, including continuous learning and replication.
Cooperation and respect are essential for a peaceful relationship between human and machine intelligence.
The decline of violence throughout history may be disrupted with the rise of machine intelligence.
Anomalies in historical analysis challenge traditional understanding of human development and progress.
Deep dives
The emergence of advanced burial practices in ancient Siberia
Archaeological findings in a remote location in Northeast Russia reveal an astonishing burial site dating back 32,000 years. The graves contain elaborately dressed bodies adorned with thousands of bone and tooth beads, along with mammoth tusks. This discovery challenges evolutionary theories as it showcases a level of complexity typically associated with advanced civilizations, rather than hunter-gatherer societies.
Macro history and projections of future development
Historian Ian Morris discusses his book 'Why the West rules for now' and its examination of long-term trends in human development and organization. By extrapolating past trends, he envisions a future where global development continues to increase exponentially and the global economy grows significantly. However, he acknowledges the possibility of abrupt disruptions, including nuclear war and extinction events. Morris also explores the potential impact of artificial intelligence and the challenges humankind may face in merging with machine intelligence.
The rise of generative AI models and implications for education
The rapid advancement of generative AI models, such as GPT-4, has raised questions about the role of human intelligence and the future of education. These models have the ability to generate sophisticated analyses and can potentially outperform human capabilities in various tasks. Instead of viewing these developments as threats to traditional education, there is a need to explore new teaching approaches that capitalize on the benefits of these technologies. The focus should be on leveraging AI as a research assistant rather than restricting its use. This raises philosophical questions about the evolving relationship between human and machine intelligence.
Evolutionary perspectives on machine-based intelligence
The development of machine-based intelligence raises the question of whether these systems should be viewed as a new species or simply advanced consumer products. Drawing parallels with biological evolution, historians and experts recognize that machine-based intelligences will have their own form of consciousness and intelligence, vastly different from human consciousness. The fusion of human and machine intelligence seems improbable, as it would necessitate a deep understanding of non-biological minds and the intentions of a different intelligence. The evolutionary dynamics of machine-based intelligence will largely determine the future trajectory and interaction with human intelligence.
Technological Advantages of Machines
Machines have fundamental technological advantages over humans, such as the ability to continue learning and improving indefinitely, rapid advancements in technology and algorithmic improvements, and the ability to replicate quickly and cost-effectively.
Competition and Cooperation with Machine Intelligence
The podcast discusses the idea of humans and machine intelligence being competitors within an evolutionary process, questioning what they would compete over and what form the competition would take. It explores the possibility of peaceful cooperation and collaboration, emphasizing the importance of shared respect and a cooperative relationship with machine intelligence.
The Decline of Violence and Evolutionary Progress
The podcast delves into the decline of violence throughout human history and the potential for violence in the future with the rise of machine intelligence. It examines the idea that violence has been decreasing due to cultural evolution and the shift towards peaceful economic systems, and explores the role of violence in securing resources and power.
Anomalies and Challenges in Historical Analysis
The podcast highlights anomalies in historical analysis, such as anomalous cases of complex societies among hunter-gatherers. It explores the challenges of quantifying human development and progress over long periods, including the difficulty in comparing information availability and energy capture between different eras.
Machine intelligence and its impact
Machine intelligence is discussed as a potential replacement for human intellect due to its ability to outperform humans in tasks and offer clearer insights. There is an emphasis on the role of machine intelligence in revolutionizing various fields and surpassing human capabilities.
The influence of anthropologists and their perspectives
The podcast highlights the work of anthropologists, such as James C. Scott and their contributions to understanding human history and societal development. The importance of their perspectives, including anarchist viewpoints, is discussed.
Reevaluating evolutionary narratives and the idea of inevitability
The podcast challenges conventional evolutionary narratives, emphasizing the need to reassess the history of humanity and the concept of inequality. It argues against the notion that inequality is inevitable in large societies, presenting alternative explanations.
The cyclical nature of history and the potential for future changes
The podcast explores the cyclical aspects of history, acknowledging the potential for future crashes and resurgences. It raises questions about the plausibility of a cyclical view of history and the potential for future changes driven by technological advancements.
"If we carry on looking at these industrialised economies, not thinking about what it is they're actually doing and what the potential of this is, you can make an argument that, yes, rates of growth are slowing, the rate of innovation is slowing. But it isn't.
What we're doing is creating wildly new technologies: basically producing what is nothing less than an evolutionary change in what it means to be a human being. But this has not yet spilled over into the kind of growth that we have accustomed ourselves to in the fossil-fuel industrial era. That is about to hit us in a big way." — Ian Morris
In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence.
