HousingWire Daily The slow dance between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates
18 snips
Oct 16, 2025 
Join Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his insights on mortgage markets and bond yields, as he delves into the critical relationship between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. He discusses the impact of Fed policy, the recent market reactions to tariff news, and labor market trends. Logan also explains why mortgage rates have remained stable amid economic changes and offers insights on tracking labor indicators during uncertain times. His data-driven approach sheds light on the current housing market dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Policy Dominates Yield Moves
- Fed policy explains roughly 65–75% of where the 10-year yield and mortgage rates move.
- Other drivers like growth, wages, and inflation expectations account for most of the rest.
Cooking Oil Headline Moved Markets
- Logan describes the tariff headlines as market 'trolling' and gives the cooking oil example to show market overreactions.
- He uses the anecdote to explain how noise from trade headlines moves stocks and bonds quickly.
Debt Didn’t Determine 2024 Yields
- High federal debt and heavy Treasury supply were expected to push yields up but didn't dominate this year.
- Historical wave-and-channel analysis plus Fed stance better explain current yield behavior.