Squawk Pod CBO Fact vs Fiction; A New Middle East 6/16/25
Jun 16, 2025
Phillip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, provides insights on the U.S. economy, including concerns over a potential $2 trillion deficit linked to proposed tax cuts. Frederick Kempe, President and CEO of the Atlantic Council, discusses the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and their historical significance. They explore the implications these conflicts have on regional stability and the future of Israeli-Saudi normalization. The episode also highlights key takeaways from the G7 summit and Anne Wojcicki's acquisition of 23andMe.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
CBO's Legal Baseline Use
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses a baseline set by law reflecting current policy, not political narratives.
- Policymakers can frame data differently, but CBO adherence to law can attract criticism despite being apolitical.
CBO's Growth Projection Reasoning
- The CBO projects 1.8% long-term US economic growth due to aging demographics and slower labor force growth.
- This projection balances optimism about productivity with realistic acknowledgment of demographic headwinds.
Tax Cuts & Economic Growth
- The 2017 Tax Cuts Act led to strong initial GDP growth as predicted by the CBO.
- Pandemic and Federal Reserve actions caused subsequent deviations from original economic forecasts.