

“Supply Shock Greater Than Great Depression-Era Smoot-Hawley Tariff” | David Kotok on Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs And Market Crash
20 snips Apr 7, 2025
David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors and author of 'The Fed and the Flu', dives into the implications of Trump’s tariffs, drawing unsettling parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff and the Great Depression. He discusses how supply shocks affect financial markets, and critiques the unintended consequences of protectionist policies on global trade. The conversation touches on trade imbalances, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and how affluent investors strategize during market turbulence, emphasizing the interconnectedness of health crises and economic trends.
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Tariff Shock Magnitude
- The new tariff levels are higher than the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s.
- This represents a massive supply shock comparable to the oil crisis of the 1970s.
Market Repricing
- Repricing the stock market with lower earnings due to tariffs could lead to a significant drop in the S&P 500.
- The market is adjusting, and earnings estimates are being revised downwards.
Widget Plant Analogy
- David Kotok recounts building a hypothetical widget plant to illustrate the complexities of supply chains.
- Sourcing equipment and skilled labor takes time, highlighting the challenges of reshoring manufacturing.