Massimo Morelli, a Professor at Bocconi University and co-author of the influential paper 'Populism and War', dives into the effects of populism on global relations. He explains how populist leaders, like Donald Trump, can elevate the risk of conflict, particularly through policies that prioritize national interests over international cooperation. Morelli reveals intriguing insights into unexpected conflict hotspots, such as Ghana and South Africa, while shedding light on the complexities of trade wars and their socio-economic impacts.
Populist rulers like Donald Trump prioritize national interests and protectionism, which can undermine global cooperation and increase international tensions.
The rise of populism can exacerbate conflicts in divided nations by limiting economic opportunities and creating conditions for civil unrest.
Deep dives
Characteristics of Populism in Leadership
Populism is characterized by political strategies that respond to changing public demands when trust in traditional politics wanes. This is evident in Donald Trump's approach, where he proposed exclusionary policies and protectionism as central tenets of his agenda. These strategies focus on simple, monitorable commitments that resonate with a public skeptical of governments and markets. Trump's transactional attitude further reinforces this populism, directing international relations toward a narrow focus on American interests, often at the expense of global cooperation.
Economic Policies and International Relations
Trump's economic policies exemplify a continuity of nationalism and protectionism, notably through the imposition of tariffs. These tariffs, coupled with a new rhetoric linking them to tax cuts, expand his appeal among voters favoring economic security. However, this protectionist stance reduces the U.S.'s engagement in international trade, aligning with a doctrine of disengagement from foreign relations that do not serve American interests. Such a framework raises concerns about the potential for heightening conflict, both domestically and internationally, as it undermines previous cooperative engagements.
Impact on Global Conflict Dynamics
The rise of a populist leader can exacerbate conflicts within ethnically or religiously divided countries by limiting economic opportunities for opposition groups, creating conditions ripe for civil conflict. This scenario posits that weakened governments may feel pressure to revise social contracts downwards, leading to increased inequality or outright conflict. Internationally, a populist's focus on national interests may present temptations for stronger states to exploit regional disparities, escalating interstate tensions. Ultimately, the shifting balance of power as populism takes hold could lead to greater uncertainties and conflicts in various geopolitical landscapes.
What effect do populist rulers of economic superpowers have on international relations, peace, and inequality? If a populist takes power in one of these countries, does it lead to more conflict in other places? Massimo Morelli describes Donald trump as “The quintessential populist”. As Trump prepares to resume his presidency in the US, he shares some surprising conclusions with Tim Phillips about the places that have a higher risk of conflict as a result.
The first in a short series of VoxTalks inspired by papers from the 3rd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Geoeconomics.
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