Fiona Hill, a renowned expert on Russia and former senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council, joins the conversation. She discusses Trump’s complex relationship with Putin and the implications for U.S.-Russia ties amid rising tensions in Ukraine. Hill critiques Trump's diplomatic approach with Zelensky and evaluates the risks of negotiating with a strongman like Putin. She also sheds light on the evolving Russia-China dynamic and the broader impact on global power dynamics.
Trump's admiration for Putin complicates U.S.-Ukrainian relations, emphasizing personal loyalty over geopolitical commitments amidst the ongoing conflict.
The rapid shift in U.S.-Russia relations under Trump raises concerns across Europe, questioning NATO's stability and American commitment to European security.
Misaligned expectations between Trump and Zelensky during their meeting reveal significant communication failures that jeopardize U.S.-Ukrainian support and understanding.
Deep dives
Trump's Approach to Putin and Zelensky
Trump's relationship with both Putin and Zelensky illustrates a unique and troubling dynamic characterized by admiration for authoritarian leadership. He has often aimed to position himself as a dominant figure in these interactions, which manifests in his condescending attitudes towards Zelensky and a preference for personal deals. Trump indicated a lack of respect for Ukraine's previous agreements, reinforcing a notion of loyalty that revolves around personal connections rather than geopolitical realities. This approach can undermine Ukraine’s standing and ultimately shift the balance of power in favor of Putin during the ongoing conflict.
The Speed of Trump's Second Term
The first weeks of Trump's second term have demonstrated a surprising and rapid shift in U.S.-Russia relations, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict. Fiona Hill noted that the pace of these developments exceeded expectations, creating immediate alarms in Europe and Kiev. Trump's warm overtures toward Putin, linked with ambitions to reshape relationships, have raised questions about U.S. commitment to NATO and European security. This urgency indicates that the geopolitical landscape is changing quickly, and even more complexity might arise as the situation unfolds.
Misunderstandings Between Trump and Zelensky
The interaction between Trump and Zelensky, especially during their Oval Office meeting, revealed significant miscommunications and expectations that were not adequately aligned. Trump demonstrated a dismissive attitude toward Ukraine, essentially instructing Zelensky to view U.S. support as personal and contingent on respect for him rather than as an institutional commitment. Zelensky's reliance on English during the meeting further complicated communication, hindering his negotiations and understanding of the stakes involved. The responding failure to secure concrete agreements highlights the tense nature of U.S.-Ukrainian relations under Trump.
Putin's Confidence Amidst Global Shifts
Putin appears emboldened by the chaos resulting from Trump's approach, perceiving a moment of triumph for Russian foreign policy interests. His confidence is exemplified by recent statements suggesting that his strategic goals, such as destabilizing NATO and asserting influence over Ukraine, may be within reach through U.S. acquiescence. This perceived progression toward Russian dominance could lead to aggressive actions against other nations, raising significant concerns in Europe. However, underlying uncertainties regarding Trump's unpredictability may also leave Russian officials apprehensive about long-term stability in their favor.
Implications for European Security
The implications for European security are profound, as Trump's potential return to power could lead to a dramatic shift in U.S. engagement and support for NATO. With Trump seemingly uninterested in stabilizing European alliances, this could compel nations to bolster their own defenses, an action that comes amid increasing threats from Russia. The resulting environment could lead to a fragmented security landscape in Europe, with countries reassessing their military readiness in the face of Russian aggression. Thus, Ukraine's plight and the broader European response encapsulate a critical juncture driven by decisions taken from Washington.
Not even two months into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump is reshaping U.S.-Russian relations at a critical juncture for the war in Ukraine. As Russian President Vladimir Putin presses his advantage on the battlefield, Trump’s admiration for the Russian leader, and his push for warmer relations with Moscow, is raising alarms across European capitals—in Kyiv most of all.
Fiona Hill spent years studying Putin and Russia as a scholar and U.S. intelligence official before serving, in the first Trump administration, as senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council. She became a household name during Trump’s first impeachment, when her testimony provided crucial insights into Trump’s dynamic with Putin and his early interactions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Today, she is a senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution and serves as Chancellor of Durham University.
Hill spoke with editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan on the morning of Tuesday, March 11, about Trump’s relationship with Putin, the prospects for peace in Ukraine, and European security in an age of American retreat. Later that afternoon, U.S. and Ukrainian officials unveiled a tentative agreement for a 30-day cease-fire—putting the ball in Putin’s court.