Horns of a Dilemma Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
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Sep 23, 2025 Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, dives into the surprising overconfidence of national security officials. He discusses how these experts often misinterpret uncertainty, with findings showing 90% confidence translates to only 57% accuracy. Key topics include the need for structured feedback, the impact of rapid decision-making on intuition, and effective calibration training that can boost accuracy. Friedman also offers practical steps for individuals and institutions to improve their decision-making processes in a complex world.
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Uncertainty Is Everywhere And Undertrained
- Uncertainty pervades foreign policy decisions and people rarely receive clear feedback on their judgments.
- That lack of feedback leaves even experienced officials overconfident about unknowns.
Experts Are Systematically Overconfident
- National security officials who report 90% confidence are correct only about 57% of the time.
- Even when certain (100%/0%) they were wrong roughly 25% of the time, showing broad overconfidence.
Provide Structured Feedback Regularly
- Give analysts structured, regular feedback on forecasting accuracy to reveal biases.
- Use calibration exercises so professionals see how overconfidence skews judgments.
