Lawfare Archive: El Salvador’s President Cracks Down on Gangs—and Democracy
Mar 22, 2025
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Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a Harvard PhD candidate specializing in El Salvador's politics, joins to discuss President Nayib Bukele's controversial approach to gang violence and its impact on democracy. They analyze how Bukele's aggressive tactics have temporarily reduced crime but led to significant human rights abuses. The conversation delves into Bukele's media manipulation and populist strategies that bolster his popularity, while also drawing parallels with global authoritarian trends, offering a cautionary tale for democracy.
Nayib Bukele's crackdown on gangs in El Salvador has led to a dramatic reduction in violence, significantly increasing his popularity despite human rights concerns.
The state of emergency has resulted in mass arrests and serious allegations of wrongful detentions, highlighting troubling implications for El Salvador's democratic institutions.
Bukele's rise to power echoes historical precedents, suggesting a potential trajectory toward increased authoritarianism and corruption if democratic checks continue to erode.
Deep dives
Nayib Bukele's Crackdown on Gang Violence
Nayib Bukele's administration in El Salvador declared a state of emergency in response to a violent surge by gangs known as Maras, resulting in nearly 70,000 arrests over a 12-month period. The crackdown has significantly curtailed gang violence, leading to a notable decline in crime rates and increasing Bukele's popularity among Salvadorans. Despite the evident success in reducing violence, there are serious human rights concerns associated with the mass arrests, including reports of wrongful detentions and abuses within overcrowded prisons. The crackdown marks a granular departure from previous anti-gang policies, as it combines aggressive enforcement with a suspension of constitutional rights under the state of emergency.
Bukele's Rise to Power and Communication Strategy
Nayib Bukele’s presidency began in 2019, framing himself as an anti-establishment leader and drawing significant public support with an unconventional communication style that leverages social media platforms. His use of Twitter to engage with both local and international audiences, often sharing memes and adopting a relatable persona, has positioned him as a modern leader in contrast to the traditional political class. As a result, he successfully cultivated a highly favorable public image, which has translated into sustained popularity, even while simultaneously consolidating power by undermining democratic institutions. His adept management of public perception has allowed him to maintain a semblance of legitimacy despite controversial policies, affecting both domestic approval and international relations.
Impact of the Non-Aggression Pact with Gangs
The effectiveness of Bukele's crackdown can be attributed, in part, to a covert non-aggression pact established between his government and major criminal organizations prior to the crackdown. This agreement effectively restrained gang violence while allowing gang leaders, imprisoned during the previous administration’s crackdowns, to negotiate favorable conditions, thereby decreasing violent incidents for a time. When the state of emergency was declared, gang leaders were unable to mobilize their members against the mass arrests, as they had previously been conditioned to avoid violence to maintain their privileges. Consequently, the absence of effective leadership weakened the gangs' capacity to retaliate, allowing Bukele to claim success in his campaign against organized crime.
Human Rights Violations Amidst the Pursuit of Security
As the crackdown unfolded, significant human rights violations came to light, including wrongful arrests estimated to number between 2,000 and 25,000 individuals. Reports indicated a troubling lack of transparency around detention practices and conditions within prisons—where monitoring is fundamentally limited due to state secrecy. The apparent trade-off between enhanced safety and potential abuses has resonated with Salvadorans, many of whom affirm their feelings of security under Bukele's measures despite acknowledging the troubling implications of wrongful detentions. This complex relationship between safety and justice raises pressing questions about the sustainability of such a model for governance in El Salvador.
Potential Lessons from Peru's Democratic Backsliding
The situation in El Salvador draws stark comparisons to Peru under Alberto Fujimori, who similarly leveraged a security crisis to dismantle democratic checks and balances in pursuit of stability. While Fujimori initially received public support for his authoritarian measures, he eventually descended into an era marked by rampant corruption and the erosion of democratic institutions. Observers suggest this trajectory could repeat in El Salvador, where Bukele’s consolidation of power may favor an environment ripe for future corruption. Therefore, the broader implications of Bukele's current policies urge cautious scrutiny as El Salvador navigates the complexities of governance between security and democracy.
From May 9, 2023: Since March 2022, El Salvador has been under a state of exception as its President Nayib Bukele seeks to crack down on the country’s powerful gangs. Bukele, who once described himself on Twitter as the “world’s coolest dictator,” has engaged in a prolonged attack on El Salvador’s democratic institutions. And the crackdown has resulted in a range of human rights abuses. At the same time, Bukele really does seem to have been successful in curbing gang violence, and his popularity is sky high.
To understand the situation in El Salvador, Lawfare Senior Editor Quinta Jurecic spoke with Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a PhD candidate in Political Science at Harvard University who has written about Bukele on Lawfare. They discussed why Bukele’s crackdown on the gangs seems to be working, why it might fall apart in the long term, and what Bukele’s rise means for democracy in El Salvador and around the world.
