MacroVoices #275 Steve Keen: Inflation Will Not Run Away
Jun 10, 2021
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Steve Keen, a renowned professor of economics known for his insights on debt and inflation, joins the discussion. He asserts that while inflation is on the horizon, it won't lead to the runaway fears some have. Keen critiques Austrian economic theories, explores the impacts of COVID-19 on supply chains, and examines the interplay between climate change and economic stability. He advocates for a new economic model that integrates environmental factors and highlights innovative investment approaches in farmland.
Steve Keen asserts that while inflation is imminent, it will not escalate into hyperinflation due to weakened demand and high private debt levels.
The podcast highlights market complacency regarding the S&P 500, suggesting potential overvaluation amid stagnant trading ranges and lack of strong momentum.
Keen emphasizes the distinction between inflation's impact on bond yields and central bank responses, underscoring the intricate relationship between monetary policy and market dynamics.
Deep dives
Inflation Predictions by Steve Keen
Steve Keen discusses the inevitability of inflation, suggesting that while it is coming, it will not result in the hyperinflation some fear. He emphasizes that the potential inflationary pressures are largely driven by supply-side disruptions stemming from COVID-19 and other factors, rather than excessive demand. Keen argues that the current economic environment lacks the strong credit-financed demand that characterized previous inflationary periods, thus limiting the ability of inflation to escalate. He believes that any price increases resulting from supply shocks will not lead to a sustained inflationary spiral due to weakened labor bargaining power and high private debt levels.
Market Complacency Amid High Valuations
Eric Townsend notes that the S&P 500 is exhibiting complacency due to its tight trading range, lacking strong momentum toward new all-time highs. This complacency suggests that market participants may be overly comfortable despite concerns about overvaluation. Townsend also raises the possibility of an 'Austrian crack-up boom' as a scenario where market conditions could change dramatically without a corresponding drop in prices. This commentary emphasizes the tension between concerns about market valuation and the actual behavior of the indices.
Bond Market Insights
The discussion around the U.S. dollar index indicates a period of stability, with no significant changes in market direction unless the index dips below 89. The conversation also transitions to the crude oil market, where recent price fluctuations were influenced by misinterpretations of sanction policies regarding Iran. Analysts suggest that the real impact of lifting sanctions is already reflected in long-term futures pricing, prompting a view that future announcements could create significant short-term opportunities for traders. Overall, this indicates a blend of caution and optimism regarding upcoming market movements.
Gold Market Dynamics
There is a sense of optimism surrounding gold as it bounces back near its 200-day moving average, indicating that it remains a structurally bullish asset. Any dips have been met with rapid buying interest, suggesting strong support at current price levels. The trade is characterized by an expectation that fluctuations in yields and broader market conditions will continue to enhance gold's attractiveness as a safe haven. Analysts speculate that reaching and maintaining key resistance levels could signify a more pronounced bullish trend ahead for gold.
Differentiating Inflation and Bond Yields
Keen discusses the perception that inflation directly causes rising bond yields, arguing instead that it is central bank policy responses to inflation that impact yields. He highlights that central banks primarily control short-term interest rates, while bond yields are more influenced by market dynamics and investor sentiment. As inflation indicators fluctuate, it's crucial for investors to separate the influence of inflationary pressures from the actions taken by central banks in response. This perspective challenges conventional views and underscores the complex interplay between economics and monetary policy.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Steve Keen to the show. Steve says inflation is definitely coming, but it won’t be the runaway inflation feared by many people, nor will it be the hyperinflation some folks fear.