Chatter: Lessons from the Decade of Mass Protests, with Vincent Bevins
Jan 4, 2024
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Vincent Bevins, author and expert on mass protests, discusses why protests often fall short of their objectives, the power of collective action, the role of social media, and the importance of adapting ideas to local contexts. The podcast explores examples from Brazil, Hong Kong, Tunisia, Egypt, and other countries, discussing the dynamics, limitations, and strategies of global protests. It also delves into the consequences of sparking a revolution and includes book recommendations.
Mass protests often struggle to maintain cohesion and articulate clear demands and long-term strategies, despite the ease of mobilization through social media.
Successful revolutions in history had structured organizations and clear ideologies, highlighting the challenges faced by modern movements lacking hierarchical structures.
Strategic planning, clear demands, and organized civil society groups are essential for achieving long-term change through mass protests.
Deep dives
The Challenges of Mass Protests
The podcast explores the challenges faced by mass protests in achieving their goals. It discusses how the image of a large number of people in the streets can be inspiring, but often leads to difficulties in maintaining a cohesive movement. The episode highlights that social media has made it easier to mobilize protests, but also weakens them in terms of articulating clear demands and long-term strategies. It illustrates this with examples from Brazil and Egypt, where initial successes in achieving small demands were followed by fragmentation and failure to articulate broader goals. The podcast argues that the romanticized notion of people power alone being sufficient for revolution overlooks the complexities and complexities of organizing and sustaining meaningful change.
The Impact of Familiarity and Possibility
The podcast emphasizes that people tend to reach for what is familiar and possible when participating in mass protests. It highlights that previous successful revolutions, such as the French and Soviet revolutions, had structured organizations and clear ideologies, which made it easier to transition to the next phase after overthrowing governments. However, in the modern context, movements often lack hierarchical structures and struggle to articulate the next steps. The episode discusses how this was exemplified in cases like Brazil and Egypt, where initial demands for specific changes gave way to broader, less defined goals. It also notes that the media's romanticized view of people power can overlook the challenges of sustaining and directing movements beyond the initial protests.
The Limitations of Mass Protests and the Need for Strategic Thinking
The podcast examines the limitations of mass protests and the importance of strategic thinking for achieving long-term change. It discusses how many large-scale protests in 2019 did not achieve their goals, despite advancements in technology and social media. The episode points out that successful protests, like the one in South Korea, had clear demands and organized civil society groups that could apply economic pressure. It also underscores the need to move beyond simply demanding the removal of leaders and articulate broader, structural changes. The podcast suggests that learning from past movements can help protesters understand the complexities and challenges they will face, and highlights the significance of strategic planning and organization to sustain and direct the energy of mass protests.
The Challenges of Horizontalism and Lack of Negotiation in Protest Movements
Many protest movements, from the Arab Spring to Occupy Wall Street to Hong Kong, faced challenges due to the belief that negotiation with existing power structures was inherently corrupt or a betrayal. Some activists believed that direct action and street protests were the only way to achieve their goals, leading to a lack of strategic patience or willingness to negotiate. While some movements were successful in pushing for policy changes, others failed to create a lasting impact or an alternative system. The teleological belief that history was pushing them towards progress and a specific direction also blinded some activists to the reality of multiple competing interests and power dynamics at play.
The Complexity and Unpredictability of Political Vacuum and Power Transitions
One recurring theme in protest movements was the realization that political vacuums created by the fall of governments or systems did not automatically lead to a better future or the desired changes. Rather, it often opened the door for various political actors to seize power, sometimes with different agendas and outcomes than initially envisioned. In advanced industrial societies, the complexity of governance and the war of positions among different groups made it challenging for protests to lead to a definitive and transformative change. Success in these situations often required organized and prepared groups with a clear vision and an understanding of the post-protest power dynamics and negotiations.
From the protests in Brazil initially focused on bus fares to the protests in Hong Kong seeking to stop an extradition bill to the protests across the Middle East now collectively referred to as the "Arab Spring," the political and economic mass demonstrations from 2010 to 2020 made it a decade of public protest like no other. Yet the vast majority of these efforts failed to bring about their desired changes--and many of them actually led to the opposite of what they wanted. Vincent Bevins, author of the new book If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution, has chronicled this decade with stories from his on-the-ground reporting and extensive interviews with activists in ten countries around the globe.
David Priess spoke with Vincent about why mass protests during this decade so often fell short of their objectives, the principle of horizontalism, the role of social media in mobilization and action, and other themes as they relate to the mass protests in Brazil, Turkey, Hong Kong, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, South Korea, and other countries.
Chatter is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This episode was produced and edited by Noam Osband and Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Podcast theme by David Priess, featuring music created using Groovepad.
