HousingWire Daily The September jobs report and existing home sales
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Nov 21, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst in housing and labor markets, joins to discuss insights from the September jobs report and the current state of existing home sales. He highlights how the job market surprised with better-than-expected figures despite rising unemployment rates. Logan also examines the implications of alternative labor market indicators and the potential for recession. Additionally, he shares reasons behind the uptick in home sales, emphasizing mortgage rates and positive trends in purchase applications.
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Jobs Beat But Unemployment Rose
- The September jobs report beat headline expectations but showed rising unemployment and negative revisions to prior months.
- Logan Mohtashami warns the labor market is softening, not breaking, and the unemployment rate rise is meaningful for Fed policy.
Very Low Job Growth This Year
- Average monthly job growth this year is very low compared with historical norms, near 76,000 per month year-to-date.
- Logan highlights manufacturing and contractor job losses but notes residential construction employment has strengthened with lower mortgage rates.
Use Jobless Claims To Signal Recession
- Do not call a recession until jobless claims materially rise; Logan uses a four-week moving average threshold of 323,000.
- He advises monitoring jobless claims as the clearest signal the labor market is breaking.