Less Noise, More Signal Macro expert: Banks are likely to buy more risk assets soon!
Jul 10, 2025
Dive into the complexities of the monetary system with discussions on the Federal Reserve's impact and the Treasury's crucial role. Unpack liquidity dynamics and its effects on market strategies, especially regarding cryptocurrency. Explore the implications of potential changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio and how this could lead banks to take on more risk. Also, discover how geopolitical events shape Bitcoin trends and the importance of technical analysis in this evolving financial landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Treasury's Extraordinary Measures Explained
- The Treasury uses extraordinary measures like borrowing from pension funds to keep operating without issuing new debt during debt ceiling suspensions.
- These measures can extend government funding runway by months, delaying the "X date".
TGA's Role in Liquidity
- The Treasury General Account (TGA) heavily impacts liquidity as its fluctuations move money in and out of the market.
- When the TGA runs down, liquidity floods the system, influencing assets like Bitcoin and market pricing.
Global Liquidity Larger and More Revealing
- True global liquidity totals over $180 trillion and trends differently than just G7 liquidity metrics.
- Understanding liquidity from a global perspective offers better directional bias for markets than traditional metrics like M2.
