Huw van Steenis, vice-chair at Oliver Wyman and former global head of banking research at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the evolving dynamics between banks and private credit. He discusses why banks are collaborating with private credit firms, despite being competitors in lending. The conversation explores the regulatory impacts and new risk behaviors stemming from the Dodd-Frank Act. Huw also highlights the trillion-dollar private credit market's role in reshaping corporate financing and the increasing influence of AI and data in modern banking.
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Quick takeaways
The relationship between banks and private credit has evolved into a collaborative dynamic, allowing both parties to optimize risk management and profitability.
Insurance companies are increasingly funding private credit firms, enhancing their competitive position and diversifying funding sources in the financial system.
Deep dives
The Surge of Private Credit and Its Dynamics
Private credit is experiencing significant growth as non-bank entities increasingly provide loans that challenge traditional banking structures. Recently, private credit institutions were responsible for approximately 90% of all leveraged loans, reflecting a trend where banks are both competing and partnering with these firms. This evolution stems from regulatory changes post-2008 that have pushed riskier lending activities outside of traditional banks, creating a parallel system for lending to corporate America. As private credit firms expand their reach, banks are concerned about the impact on their profitability, signaling a shift in the financial landscape.
The Symbiotic Relationship Between Banks and Private Credit
The relationship between banks and private credit entities has shifted from competition to a more collaborative dynamic, where each party seeks to optimize risk and increase profitability. Banks are laying off risk to private credit firms by transferring less desirable loans, allowing them to redeploy capital more efficiently. Meanwhile, private credit firms benefit by receiving loans from banks, which helps them scale their operations and diversify their lending portfolios. This complex interplay enables both banks and private credit providers to navigate the current financial environment more effectively while managing their respective risks.
The Role of Insurance Capital in Private Credit Growth
Insurance companies play a crucial role in the evolution of private credit, providing a stable source of funding that complements the capital needs of private credit firms. With insurers increasingly willing to invest in private credit, there is an opportunity for private credit firms to secure long-term capital at favorable rates, thus enhancing their competitive position. Insurance-backed asset portfolios are becoming a central focus for these firms, allowing them to target higher-quality assets that can yield better returns. This integration of insurance capital not only fuels the growth of private credit but also helps in diversifying funding sources in the financial system.
Future Opportunities for Private Credit
Looking ahead, private credit firms are poised to expand their influence in both asset-backed lending and commercial real estate markets. Currently, private credit holds only a small portion of the total market for specialty finance and commercial real estate, indicating substantial growth potential. These firms are actively seeking to partner with banks to harness new opportunities, especially in growing sectors like mid-market lending. Additionally, there is a significant focus on attracting wealth from family offices and insurers, suggesting a strategic shift to target affluent clients for the next phase of growth in private credit.
By now, everyone knows that private credit is a hot market. What's less known is that banks want in on it too. It's an odd state of affairs given that both these entities are in the business of making loans, so in theory they should be competing against each other. But instead we're seeing a bunch of deals, with more than a dozen big banks teaming up with private credit over the past year. So why are two seemingly natural competitors joining forces? And how much of an existential threat does private credit really pose for the banking industry? On this episode, we with speak with Huw van Steenis, vice-chair at Oliver Wyman and a long-time bank analyst at Morgan Stanley, about this new dynamic.
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