Economist Khalid Ikram discusses Egypt's economic crisis, including the military's role in the economy and potential solutions. They compare Egypt's situation to other governments in the region and explore the impact of the crisis on the country's relationships with Western states and China.
The Egyptian military's heavy-handed role in the economy is a significant barrier to resolving the economic crisis.
The dominance of state-owned enterprises and government preference for them hinder the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises in Egypt.
Deep dives
Egypt's Economic Crisis and Debt
The podcast episode explores the economic crisis in Egypt, which was precipitated by the Ukraine war. Rising commodity prices and the departure of foreign investors have worsened the situation. The Gulf governments, previously willing to provide bailouts, are now interested in investing in Egyptian businesses but on better terms. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has extended a loan to Egypt, but compliance with the agreed terms has been a challenge. The episode delves into the heavy-handed role of the Egyptian military in the economy and the barriers preventing policymakers from resolving the crisis.
Challenges in Implementing IMF Reforms
The episode discusses the challenges Egypt faces in complying with IMF demands. The IMF has called for the depreciation of the Egyptian pound, reduction of military presence in the economy, and increased competitiveness of state-owned enterprises. However, the episode highlights the difficulty of implementing these reforms and the different strategies that countries like Korea have adopted to adjust their exchange rates and manage state-owned enterprises. The political economy behind the reluctance to close or downsize state-owned enterprises is explored.
Barriers to Business Growth in Egypt
The podcast highlights the lack of business growth in Egypt and the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The dominance of state-owned enterprises and competition from them hinder the growth of SMEs. The government's preference for supporting state-owned enterprises over promoting efficiency and growth is discussed. The episode mentions the lack of divestment and the government's tendency to suppress competition from the private sector, thereby preventing SMEs from expanding and driving employment growth.
Regime Survival and Economic Reform
The episode delves into the relationship between economic reform and regime survival in Egypt. Economic reform is seen as essential for the survival of the regime, as it can address income distribution and reduce external pressure. However, the fear of upsetting the winners in the current distribution of power and the lack of confidence in the outcomes of reform present obstacles. The role of the Egyptian military in economic decision-making and the unwillingness to take risks on economic change are explored. The episode also touches on the challenges of measuring public sentiment in an authoritarian system.
This week on Babel, Jon Alterman breaks down Egypt's economic crisis with Khalid Ikram, a veteran economist and consultant for over a dozen major international development organizations. They talk about the Egyptian military’s role in the economy and how Egyptian policymakers can alleviate the current crisis. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Will Todman and Leah Hickert, discussing how other governments in the region handle their economies in comparison to Egypt.