Shift Key with Robinson Meyer Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis
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Apr 9, 2026 
Rory Johnston, oil analyst and author of the Commodity Context newsletter, explains why the Iran ceasefire has not resolved energy market stresses. He breaks down why the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. He maps where supply is most strained, how spot and futures markets diverge, and why diesel and Asia face acute pressure.
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Ceasefire Has Not Reopened The Strait
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite a two-week ceasefire announcement.
- Rory Johnston observed only four ships passed on the first day and none were tankers, showing Iran still throttles traffic to keep leverage.
Thirteen Million Barrels A Day Are Shut In
- About 13 million barrels per day of Gulf liquids production is shut in while the strait is closed.
- Johnston estimated shut production includes crude, NGLs, and condensates from Saudi, Emirati, Kuwaiti and Iraqi fields, pressing global supply.
Restricted Passage Gives Iran Strategic Leverage
- Iran benefits geopolitically from keeping the strait restricted because it increases leverage over time.
- Johnston argues a continued throttled strait during a ceasefire gives Iran breathing room while the global economy endures mounting pressure.