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Macro Voices
MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0
Jan 30, 2025
Rory Johnston, the founder of Commodity Context and an energy market expert, dives deep into the intricacies of the crude oil market. He discusses the significant impacts of Trump’s tariff policies on oil supply and the critical importance of crude quality in refining. Johnston highlights the geopolitical implications of U.S. foreign policy on oil prices, touches on OPEC's production strategies, and explains how sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela shape the market. It's an insightful exploration of oil's evolving landscape!
01:07:57
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Quick takeaways
- The oil market is shifting towards a bullish outlook due to low inventories and rising demand, predicting Brent prices in the low $80 range.
- Potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil could disrupt U.S. refining operations, escalating costs and complicating logistics for specific crude blends.
Deep dives
Current Oil Market Dynamics
The oil market is experiencing a significant shift, entering 2025 with low inventory levels combined with an anticipated increase in demand. After a period of volatility and a slowdown in both supply and demand growth throughout 2024, the outlook is becoming more bullish as demand is starting to outpace supply. With a current expectation of another modest supply deficit this year, prices might trend towards the low $80 range for Brent crude. This adjustment reflects the market's underlying fundamental undersupply, even as it grapples with various policy risks and geopolitical factors.
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