Gold’s $4,000 Pullback Signals Opportunity, Not Reversal

Oct 28, 2025

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Recording date: 24th October 2025

Derek McPherson (Executive Chair) and Sam Pelaez (President, CEO, and CIO) of Olive Resource Capital are viewing recent weakness in gold and mining equities as a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal, despite gold correcting from $4,300 to $4,000 per ounce and leading equities declining 15-20% from recent highs.

In their October 24th podcast recorded from Zurich, the duo characterized the pullback as normal seasonal volatility within an ongoing bull market. Sam noted that gold reached an RSI reading of 92—the highest ever recorded before the correction, suggesting the rally had extended beyond sustainable levels. Historical analysis shows mining equities commonly correct 33-66% within bull markets, making current pullbacks of 10-20% modest by comparison.

The team has strategically positioned for this volatility, transitioning from net sellers in August-September to net buyers in October after raising approximately 10% cash. They plan to increase deployment through November-December, particularly targeting high-conviction names like K92 Mining and Bellevue Gold that have pulled back significantly.

Derek and Sam identified the upcoming Q3 earnings season as a critical catalyst for renewed momentum. With the third quarter featuring the highest gold prices on record, producers should report exceptional results. Additionally, buyback programs, typically suspended during pre-earnings blackout periods are expected to reactivate around November 15, providing technical support.

The duo emphasized that the fundamental investment thesis remains intact. The "monetary debasement trade" continues with government spending growing faster than economic output, exemplified by the Department of Homeland Security spending $181 million on private jets during a government shutdown. They also noted copper presents opportunities, with the commodity holding firm at $5 per pound while equities have weakened.

With most gold equities trading within 10% of 52-week highs, tax-loss selling pressure should be minimal this year, potentially allowing momentum from Q3 earnings to carry through year-end and into what is historically the strongest seasonal period for commodities in Q1 2026.