Why the Mt. Gox Repayments May Not Hurt the Bitcoin Price Much - Ep. 666
Jun 28, 2024
auto_awesome
Alex Thorn from Galaxy discusses the minimal impact of Mt. Gox repayments on Bitcoin price, potential market shocks from creditors receiving billions, success of Ethereum ETFs, impact of Mt. Gox repayments, Ethereum ETFs, and government Bitcoin sales on crypto prices, chances of a Solana ETF approval.
Despite fears, only a small fraction of 142,000 bitcoins from Mt. Gox will likely be sold, dampening market impact.
Approval of Ethereum ETFs and potential Solana ETF filing point to growing interest in crypto ETFs.
Deep dives
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Distribution
A total of 142,000 bitcoins worth approximately $9 billion will be repaid to creditors, allowing early creditors to choose between an immediate partial payment or hold out for a complete refund, influenced by an 11% discount. Creditors can receive their bitcoins through platforms like BitGo, Kraken, or Bitstamp after years of legal processes and account setups.
Creditor Distribution Details
About 64,000 bitcoins are expected to be delivered to approximately 20,000 individuals post-haircut, with 20,000 coins being held in Gox claims funds and 10,000 by Bitcoinica, indicating lesser potential sources of selling pressure. The LPs of claims funds are likely high net worth early Bitcoin adopters interested in holding Bitcoin rather than selling immediately.
Impact on Bitcoin Prices
The expected sale of around 6,500 bitcoins could cause a temporary market spook, however, the diverse nature of creditors and their intent to hold or sell may lessen the market impact. With 142,000 bitcoins set for delivery, the actual selling pool could be significantly smaller, potentially leading to little impact on Bitcoin's overall market.
Future Crypto ETFs and Market Predictions
The approval of Ethereum ETFs and news of a potential Solana ETF filing by VanEck signal growing interest in crypto ETFs, highlighting the market's positive reaction to such financial products. While the future price movements in Bitcoin remain uncertain due to various factors like regulatory changes and global events, recent trends suggest that even minor activity could have some impact on the market in the near future.
Ten and a half years after filing for bankruptcy, Mt. Gox is finally set to disburse 142,000 Bitcoin worth nearly $9 billion to creditors between July and October.
Market concern has been growing over the potential impact on Bitcoin prices, but Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, explains why only a small fraction of those bitcoins will be sold. He also discusses the implications of this redistribution on the market, the potential success of Ethereum ETFs, and the chances of a Solana ETF approval.
Show highlights:
00:00 Intro
02:04 Why Alex estimates the amount of bitcoins that creditors sell will be a tiny fraction of the 142,000 to be repaid
13:35 What market shocks could arise from Mt. Gox creditors receiving billions in Bitcoin, and why he believes Bitcoin Cash is the real wild card
18:18 Whether Ethereum ETFs could be as successful as Bitcoin ETFs in attracting investors
23:06 Whether potential outflows from Grayscale's Ethereum Trust will dampen the excitement around Ethereum ETFs
25:07 How the combination of Mt. Gox repayments, Ethereum ETFs, and German and American government Bitcoin sales might affect crypto prices
27:32 The chances the SEC approves a spot Solana ETF
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com