Can Japan Survive Its Demographic Crisis? | Samo Burja

May 24, 2025

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Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Demographic Crisis

Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century
Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly
Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates

Cultural Challenges

Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children
Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids
97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options

Economic Implications

Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective
Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging
Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain

Military Transformation

From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs
Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required"
Key player in Taiwan scenarios

Geopolitical Positioning

Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US
Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism
Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia

Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them.