"In Ukraine, 60-70% Of Russian Casualties Are Caused By Small Drones" With David Hambling, Author of "Swarm Troopers"

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Hambling for a sweeping discussion on drone technologies and their applications. David is a journalist, author, and defense technology expert with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED, and more (for an archive of David’s writings, click here). David is the author of “Swarm Troopers” and has researched the history of drones and in particular, has zeroed in on the potential impact of smaller drones in both military and consumer applications. We were thrilled to visit with David.
 
In our conversation, David shares his background in military technology and how his previous book, “Weapons Grade,” led him to explore the rise of drones. We discuss how the military lost its tech lead due to rapid commercial innovations, particularly as mobile phone technologies enabled the development of small, cheap, and highly capable drones. David explains the evolution of drone use, from reconnaissance tools to precision combat systems, and how this transformation has played out dramatically in the Russia-Ukraine war, where nearly two-thirds of Russian fatalities on Ukrainian soil are reportedly caused by small drones. We explore the shift from human-operated drones to autonomous systems, the difficulty of defending against small, agile drones, and the growing threat that they pose to critical energy and transportation infrastructure. David shares background on the historical cultural bias within militaries that sidelined drones in favor of piloted aircraft, until the CIA’s early adoption of drone strikes eventually forced the Air Force to adopt them, as well as the recent surprising Trump Administration decision to continue the Boeing F-47 contract. We cover the regulatory challenges facing drone adoption, particularly the limitations on beyond visual line of sight operations, public concerns around safety and privacy, and global developments including Dubai’s plans to pilot flying taxi drones by 2027. David outlines China’s dominance in the global drone market, applications of drones including infrastructure inspection, delivery services, reforestation, and the unique Ukrainian “Victory Drone” program that encourages civilians to help war efforts by building drones at home for frontline use. We also touch on China’s demographic challenges and how its shrinking and aging population is fueling the nation’s strategic investment in AI, robotics, and autonomy, the critical role of software in making humanoid robots useful, especially with using assistive tech for elderly care, and more. We end with David’s thoughts on what the drone and robotics landscape might look like in ten years. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion that raised both the opportunities and the ethical complexities involved.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that from a broader equity market standpoint, “Trumpatility” remains alive. Despite S&P volatility being cut in half over the last five trading days, it’s still higher than average and will likely stay elevated until we begin to see tariff deals signed. Equity markets feel much worse than reality, given that the S&P 500 is only down ~7% year to date. On the International equity front, Argentina received a $20 billion IMF package last Friday, which could be an extremely important development for the country’s long-term growth. On Monday, Argentina allowed its currency to freely float (between 1,000-1,400 pesos per dollar) for the first time in a very long time. In response, Argentinian 10yr bond yields plunged this week by ~150 basis points, and the Argentina equity market (Merval) and major Argentinian Energy equities have both rallied on the IMF deal. From an oil market standpoint, WTI looks to have temporarily stabilized in the low-$60s per barrel range. This week, the IEA slashed both its 2025 &am