School of War Ep 244: Oren Cass on a Strategy of Reciprocity
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Nov 4, 2025 
Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass, discusses his insights on U.S. strategic policy towards China. He explores the flawed assumptions that shaped American views post-Cold War, advocating for a strategy of reciprocity in alliances and trade. Cass highlights the importance of recognizing spheres of influence and argues for selective economic decoupling to safeguard critical supply chains. He also addresses how a reciprocity-based approach could redefine U.S. partnerships, presenting a nuanced view on the future of global alliances.
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Two Distinct Eras Of U.S. Grand Strategy
- Postwar U.S. strategy split into containment (Cold War) and an expansive post-Cold War liberal-order project.
- The latter assumed universal liberalization and imposed costs that ultimately yielded declining benefits for the U.S.
Bad Assumptions About China’s Trajectory
- Policymakers assumed China would liberalize as it integrated into the global economy.
- That assumption led to tolerating abusive trade practices in hopes China would become a market democracy.
Spheres Replace Universal Liberal Order
- The world is reverting to competing spheres, not a single liberal order.
- The U.S. should lead a block of market democracies separate from China-led systems.
