HousingWire Daily Trump’s housing plan, plus inventory and mortgage rates
18 snips
Oct 8, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Housing Analyst and data expert, joins to dissect Trump's housing policy and the current state of the market. He shares insights on why mortgage rates haven't spiked despite economic stress, revealing the impact of the Fed and labor market. Logan casts doubt on a potential construction boom due to rising rates crushing builder margins. He also discusses why the notion of tight inventory may be misleading, highlighting how market conditions affect builder confidence and permit growth.
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Labor Weakness Kept Yields Down
- Mortgage yields moved differently this year because labor weakness sent money into bonds rather than inflation fears driving yields up.
- Logan Mohtashami says bond buyers reacted to a growth/labor scare, keeping mortgage rates from spiking further.
Shutdowns Haven't Moved Markets (Yet)
- The current government shutdown has not meaningfully moved bond markets or mortgage rates yet.
- Logan argues markets only react if shutdowns raise real consumer costs or persist for many weeks.
Spreads Improve Unless Big Shocks Hit
- Mortgage spreads are sensitive to big shocks like SVB but otherwise behave normally as volatility compresses.
- Logan notes spreads improved in 2025 and historically retract after temporary widenings.