NAB Morning Call Back where we started from
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Nov 30, 2025 Ray Attrill, a market economist and strategist at NAB, delves into the recent volatility in global markets. He explains how US equities and the Australian dollar ended November where they began, despite fluctuations. The discussion highlights the surprising strength in Canada’s GDP and its implications for the Bank of Canada. Additionally, Ray analyzes Tokyo's CPI and the implications for the BOJ, along with mixed Eurozone inflation data. The rally in precious metals and its impact on commodities also gets significant attention, offering valuable insights into the market trends ahead.
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Round-Trip November For Markets
- November was largely a round trip: major swings but US equities and the AUD finished where they started.
- Ray Attrill highlights that volatility masked an overall neutral monthly outcome for markets.
Fed-Cut Odds Drive Risk Sentiment
- Markets priced a higher chance of an imminent Fed cut, lifting risk assets despite mixed signals.
- Ray Attrill notes about an 83% implied probability the Fed will cut next week after recent comments.
Canada's Growth Surprises Upward
- Canada's Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, driven by government and residential investment.
- Ray Attrill says this strength lifted the Canadian dollar and reduced near-term cut prospects for the BoC.