Azeem Azhar's Exponential View Are we ready for human-level AI by 2030? Anthropic's co-founder answers
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Apr 1, 2025 Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief scientist of Anthropic, discusses the potential arrival of human-level AI in just 2-3 years, much sooner than expected. He highlights how Claude's reasoning capabilities are evolving, allowing AI to tackle complex tasks efficiently. Kaplan emphasizes the importance of constitutional AI and interpretability to ensure safety as models grow more powerful. The conversation also touches on the competitive landscape of AI development between the U.S. and China, and the ethical considerations essential for harnessing AI responsibly.
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Human-Level AI Timeline
- Jared Kaplan predicts human-level AI sooner than 2030, likely within 2-3 years.
- He emphasizes that human-level AI isn't an objective measure but a continuous improvement across various capabilities.
AI Capability Axes
- Kaplan views AI capability on two axes: breadth of operational environments and complexity of tasks.
- He highlights AI's expansion from restricted environments like Go to broader interaction like language and image understanding.
Limits of Scaling Laws
- Scaling laws, where increasing model size, data, and compute predictably improves performance, have driven AI progress.
- Data limitations and cost are potential constraints, but algorithmic and hardware improvements mitigate cost increases.