Graham Allison on the Risks of a US-China War

Wang Huning's "America Against America" offers a critical analysis of the American political system, focusing on the role of special interests and their influence on policymaking. The book argues that the dominance of these groups leads to gridlock and prevents effective long-term strategic planning. Huning's perspective is shaped by his extensive research and time spent studying in American universities. The book's central thesis is that the US political system is susceptible to capture by powerful interests, hindering its ability to address complex challenges. This analysis resonates with broader discussions about the challenges facing late-stage democracies.

In 'Destined for War,' Graham Allison explores the concept of the 'Thucydides Trap,' where the rise of a new power threatens the dominance of an existing one, often leading to war. Allison draws on 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a dominant state, with 12 of these cases resulting in war. He applies this historical lens to the current relationship between the United States and China, highlighting the potential for conflict but also outlining '12 clues to peace' derived from historical analysis to prevent such an outcome. The book is divided into sections that cover the rise of China, historical lessons from the Peloponnesian War and other conflicts, and strategies for avoiding war based on these historical insights.

In 'The Great Illusion,' Norman Angell argues that the economic costs of war are so high that no nation can hope to gain from it. He contends that modern economic systems, based on trade and contract law, make war futile because conquest does not lead to economic benefits. The book refutes the common belief that military power results in greater wealth and instead posits that advanced economies can only generate value in the absence of military conflicts. Angell also discusses the psychological and moral aspects of war, emphasizing that the nature of modern capitalism makes nationalist sentiment among capitalists irrelevant. Despite its publication just before World War I, which seemed to contradict his thesis, the book remains a significant work in the field of international relations and peace studies.