Elevate with Robert Glazer Peter Atwater on Confidence in Economics, Leadership and More
Oct 30, 2025
Peter Atwater, a behavioral economist and author of The Confidence Map, dives into the intricate relationship between confidence and decision-making. He highlights how feelings of invulnerability can lead to unprecedented crises, using historical events as case studies. Atwater differentiates between genuine confidence and performative bravado, emphasizing the importance of preparing for consequences rather than causes. He also discusses the psychological dynamics of leadership during times of low confidence and how social media has reshaped the landscape, demanding leaders to react swiftly to changing sentiments.
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Invulnerability Breeds Crises
- Invulnerability precedes major shocks because high collective certainty blinds scrutiny.
- Peter Atwater calls this feeling invulnerability rather than overconfidence because it breeds blindness.
Confidence Is Forward-Looking Control
- Confidence equals perceived control, perceived certainty, and a forward-looking horizon.
- Low confidence shortens your temporal span and narrows choices, shifting behavior to the near term.
Use A Control–Certainty Map
- Map situations into high/low control and certainty to understand behavior and risks.
- Use that two-by-two to anticipate states like comfort, stress, passenger, and maximum-security prisms.
