Barbara A. Leaf | 'Taking the Edge Off the Middle East' Ep. 7
Feb 6, 2025
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Barbara A. Leaf, a seasoned diplomat and former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, joins the discussion to illuminate pressing issues in the Middle East. She delves into the potential responses of a second Trump administration to emerging 'black swan' events. The conversation covers the complexities of U.S. policy in Syria, the impact of humanitarian aid freezes, and the shifting geopolitical landscape involving Iran and the Hamas-Israel conflict. Leaf's insights underscore the critical need for effective diplomacy in ensuring regional stability.
The freeze in U.S. foreign assistance threatens national security by destabilizing regions like Syria, exacerbating global issues that impact American safety.
Recent 'black swan' events in the Middle East present unique diplomatic opportunities for the U.S., which must engage effectively to prevent future threats.
Deep dives
Impact of U.S. Foreign Assistance
The recent freeze in U.S. foreign assistance, particularly through USAID, is seen as a significant threat to national security. Such assistance has historically played a crucial role in mitigating conflicts, addressing poverty, and combating diseases globally. The absence of aid can destabilize regions such as Syria, where halted support has already led to chaos in camps housing ISIS families, creating potential hotspots for future threats. Ultimately, this move undermines the tools necessary for maintaining U.S. interests abroad and may exacerbate global problems that come back to affect the American public.
The Shifting Landscape in the Middle East
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has dramatically changed due to several 'black swan' events, including the recent conflicts with Hamas and the transformations in Syria and Lebanon. These developments have presented unique opportunities for the U.S. to engage diplomatically and reshape its relationships in the region. However, there is concern that the current administration is not capitalizing on these changes effectively, especially with the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy and leadership. Engaging with the new realities in these countries can help prevent the resurgence of threats that have historically challenged U.S. interests.
Challenges in Negotiation and Peace Processes
The discussions surrounding the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are complicated by the need for a credible Palestinian component to any agreement. There is skepticism about whether these negotiations can progress, especially given the extensive damage and instability caused by the recent conflict. Moreover, the dynamics of leadership within Israel, particularly factions advocating for annexation, complicate the situation further. A failure to address these complexities could jeopardize any pathway towards peace and normalization in the region.
Lessons Learned from U.S. Engagement
Reflecting on decades of foreign service experience, there is a strong emphasis on the importance of U.S. leadership and engagement in global affairs. Historically, U.S. involvement has been critical to resolving conflicts and fostering stability, but missteps, such as in Iraq, highlight the complexities of intervention. The necessity of being proactive rather than reactive in support and diplomacy is underscored, as neglect can lead to chaos and a power vacuum. Ultimately, enduring U.S. engagement is needed to prevent the rise of adversarial powers that can exploit such vacuums.
Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
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