UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - Latest on US trade policy & government funding talks
Sep 17, 2025
Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, dives into the latest on U.S. trade policy, particularly following a significant federal appeals court ruling. He discusses challenges posed by tariffs and their impact on market stability. The talk shifts to the urgent negotiations around government funding as a potential shutdown looms, shedding light on political strategies and historical market reactions. Kurt's insights provide a clear picture of the complexities and uncertainties in today's economic landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
IEPA Tariff Ruling Heads To The Supreme Court
- The appeals court upheld a ruling that many IEPA tariffs were unlawful but the tariffs remain in place while the case goes to the Supreme Court.
- The administration seeks expedited review with arguments scheduled in November and a likely decision by year-end or early next year.
Many Tariffs Fall Under Other Authorities
- Not all tariffs are governed by the IEPA; major portions derive from Section 232 and other authorities covering metals and sectoral products.
- About two-thirds to three-quarters of tariff revenue comes from other authorities like Section 232, which remain enforced and subject to separate considerations.
Tariff Spike Drove Spring Volatility
- Effective tariff rates spiked from ~2.5% to the high teens after large tariff actions, fueling spring market volatility over growth and earnings concerns.
- Markets now largely price a mid-teen tariff rate (~15–18%), reducing but not eliminating tariff-driven risk.