Sanam Vakil, a director at Chatham House specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, shares insights on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They discuss recent military actions, Iran's missile strikes, and the effectiveness of Israel's Iron Dome. The conversation delves into the complex U.S.-Israel relationship and the balance of support and stability concerns. Vakil emphasizes the risks of escalating conflict and the imperative for renewed negotiations to address humanitarian crises and regional instability.
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is marked by missile attacks and retaliatory airstrikes, intensifying the risk of regional war.
Iran is caught between a precarious military position and internal debates over whether to adopt a more aggressive or patient strategy against Israel.
Deep dives
Escalation and Potential Consequences
The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated significantly, with missile attacks and airstrikes becoming a regular occurrence in the region. Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, and Israel's response has included a strong counter-offensive aimed at Iran's facilities, highlighting a cycle of escalation that could lead to broader regional war. The dynamics of this escalation are compounded by Iran's strategic calculations, as it attempts to maintain its position in the face of Israel's aggressive military actions. The danger lies particularly in targeting civilian areas, which could provoke an overwhelming retaliation from Israel, further spiraling the conflict into an uncontrollable situation.
Iran's Response and Strategic Position
Iran's current strategic position is precarious, given its limited conventional military capabilities compared to Israel's quantitative edge. While Iran attempts to assert its influence through missile strikes, it simultaneously seeks to preserve its reputation and deter Israel from further assaults on its assets. There is an ongoing internal debate in Iran regarding whether to adopt a strategy of patience or take a more aggressive stance against Israel's operations aimed at dismantling its regional alliances. Ultimately, this situation reflects a complex interplay of domestic pressures and external threats that Iran must navigate carefully to avoid further isolation or conflict escalation.
The Role of International Players
The role of the United States in the ongoing conflict is critical, as it has consistently supported Israel while appearing reluctant to engage directly in hostilities. There are concerns that the Biden administration's backing of Israel signals a readiness to escalate military actions that could disrupt regional stability, particularly if Iran's nuclear facilities are targeted. Nevertheless, the U.S. faces its own domestic challenges, making it increasingly difficult to exert influence over its allies in the Middle East. This dynamic underscores the complexity of international relations in the region, where local conflicts are heavily influenced by broader geopolitical considerations and the shifting priorities of global powers.
Gideon talks to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House in London, about what Israel and Iran may be planning for their next move as the region slides towards all-out war. Clips: The Telegraph; BBC