This podcast analyzes the recent developments in the US rates market and the shift in the FOMC's 2024 projection. It explores the Fed's considerations on interest rate cuts and their efforts to manage a soft landing in the economy. The discussion also covers the Fed's dovish stance, market rally, potential consolidation, and the recalibration of the Treasury market, auctions, and inflation expectations.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled intentions to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, leading to a bullish response in the treasury market.
The Fed's dovish pivot reflects the trend in employment and inflation data, with the committee proactively cutting rates to achieve a soft landing and re-anchor inflation.
Deep dives
FOMC signals rate cuts in 2024, market responds bullishly
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled intentions to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, leading to a bullish response in the treasury market. 10-year yields dropped below 4%, creating a constructive setup for a year that is expected to feature rate cuts. Although New York Fed President Williams tried to moderate the market's perception, the bond bullish price action remained intact. However, the bond market may exhibit low liquidity and choppiness in the final two weeks of December, historically characterized by a lack of conviction.
Fed pivot reflects trend in employment and inflation
The Fed's dovish pivot, signaled by Powell's press conference, reflects the trend in employment and inflation data. Despite a strong economy, signs of labor market softening and cooling wage growth have led the committee to proactively cut rates. The Fed's focus on the trend rather than the outright level of data indicates a desire for a soft landing and an attempt to re-anchor inflation. While investors fear missing out on the rally, a consolidation phase is likely to occur with 10-year yields capped at 4%.
Market recalibrates to Fed's reaction function and upcoming data
The Treasury market will continue to recalibrate based on the Fed's updated reaction function and incoming economic data, particularly inflation. If the Fed follows the futures market and cuts rates in Q1 2024, it would be constructive in avoiding a hard landing. The market will gain a better understanding of the Fed's dovish pivot as more Fed speakers provide insights. Additionally, the week ahead features auctions for 20-year and 5-year tips, as well as the release of core PCE data for November, which will impact rate cut expectations.
Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Vail Hartman bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 18th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.
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