What Bitcoin Did The End of Fed Control? Bitcoin & Macro Outlook | Checkmate, Joe Carlasare, Matthew Pines
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Sep 30, 2025 
Join Joe Carlasare, a commercial litigator and macro expert, Checkmate, an on-chain analyst, and Matthew Pines, director at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, as they dissect the shifting landscape of Bitcoin and macroeconomics. They explore the demise of the four-year cycle and how ETFs are reshaping market volatility. The trio discusses gold’s resurgence amid central bank purchases and the implications for fiscal dominance on Fed independence. With insights on AI's impact on productivity and inequality, this conversation is a must-listen for crypto enthusiasts!
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Cycles Are Macro, Not Magical
- The four-year halving cycle is likely a narrative, not a structural driver of Bitcoin price.
- Macro conditions and risk-asset cycles explain Bitcoin moves better than deterministic halving timing.
Bitcoin's New Low-Vol Regime
- Bitcoin's volatility has declined significantly since ETF adoption and institutional flows.
- That placidity changes investor psychology and reduces short-term trading behavior.
Options Flatten Routine Swings, Amplify Tails
- ETF options and covered strategies materially suppress routine volatility but create tail risk.
- Options markets can blunt moves until sharp tail events force large repricing.