Sam Roggeveen, an expert on international security from the Lowy Institute and critic of AUKUS, fears Australia's sovereignty is at stake. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull shares insights on dealing with U.S. expectations during his tenure. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles argues for the strategic benefits of AUKUS. They discuss the potential risks of over-reliance on U.S. military operations and the financial implications of contributing nuclear submarines to regional defense, alongside Australia's need for a more independent security strategy.
Paul Keating critiques the AUKUS deal, warning that dependence on the U.S. undermines Australia's sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
Concerns about financial implications highlight potential costs for Australia in the AUKUS agreement with limited guaranteed military returns from the U.S.
Deep dives
Critique of AUKUS by Paul Keating
Former Prime Minister Paul Keating has been a prominent critic of the AUKUS deal, questioning Australia's reliance on the United States for defense capabilities. He argues that Australia can adequately defend itself without being overly dependent on the U.S., suggesting that such a dependence could compromise national sovereignty. Keating's critique raises significant questions about the strategic value of AUKUS, particularly whether the perceived benefits justify the risks associated with becoming entangled in U.S.-led conflicts that may not align with Australia's vital national interests. His comments prompt a broader discussion about the implications of the defense partnership and whether it truly serves Australia's best interests.
Strategic Risks in Military Alliances
Concerns have been raised regarding the risks associated with hosting U.S. military capabilities on Australian soil, particularly with facilities such as HMA Stirling and Tyndall airbase. Critics like Sam Roggeveen argue that these developments transform Australia into a more prominent target in potential military conflicts, questioning the adequacy of returns on investment for the security risks incurred. The analysis suggests that while alliances may enhance capabilities, they might also come with increased exposure to threats, especially if conflicts arise. This discussion highlights the need for the Australian government to transparently address these risks and evaluate the true security benefits of AUKUS.
Financial Viability of AUKUS
Financial implications of the AUKUS agreement suggest that Australia may assume significant costs without guaranteed returns, particularly concerning the acquisition of Virginia-class submarines. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pointed out the uncertainty over whether the U.S. will provide these submarines, given their current shortfall in naval assets. He emphasized that the deal appears heavily tilted in favor of the United States, which could leave Australia with substantial expenditures and limited military assets. This raises serious questions about the budgetary impact of AUKUS on the overall defense budget, prompting a reevaluation of defense priorities and expenditure.
Rethinking Australia's Defense Strategy
Defense Minister Richard Marles emphasized the need for a well-rounded defense strategy that includes a capable workforce to support the AUKUS initiative. He highlighted that increased defense spending would foster critical national security capabilities, but critics argue this may require a budgetary shift that disrupts other government spending priorities. The discussion also delves into Australia’s ability to produce skilled personnel and technological capabilities for the submarines, with significant investments in training and education being essential. This focus on developing an autonomous defense capacity indicates a strategic approach that balances reliance on allies while enhancing Australia's self-sufficiency.
Former Prime Minister Paul Keating has said of AUKUS that "we don't need to be a pair of shoes hanging out of America's backside". Is that a fair characterisation of Australia's position vis a vis AUKUS? Are we getting the short end of the stick with this deal, and sacrificing our sovereignty to boot?
GUESTS:
Sam Roggeveen - Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace
Malcolm Turnbull - 29th Prime Minister of Australia 2015-2018.
Richard Marles - the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Minister for Defence and the Federal Member for Corio.