Riskgaming

Remembering Daniel Kahneman on Risk, Bias and Decision-Making (Part 1)

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Apr 30, 2025
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ADVICE

Premortems Help Anticipate Risks

  • Use premortems to anticipate potential project failures before decisions are finalized.
  • This practice helps identify and close potential loopholes, improving risk preparedness without necessarily changing the original decision.
INSIGHT

Premortems Mitigate Overconfidence

  • Premortems do not eliminate self-serving bias; people still favor explanations attributing success to themselves and failure to external factors.
  • They are, however, effective at preventing overconfidence from increasing, which aids better calibration of expectations.
INSIGHT

Beliefs Tied to Identity

  • People rarely change their minds on important matters because their beliefs are deeply tied to identity and social connections.
  • Rationalizations people tell themselves are often just stories masking emotional or social reasons behind belief fixation.
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